THE EFFECT OF FRAMING AND EXPERT OPINION ON PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF PRESIDENT TOQAYEV'S POLICY AGAINST ELITE CORRUPTION

Abstract

This thesis delves into Kazakhstanis’ views on President Toqayev’s measures targeting elite-level corruption in the wake of the Bloody January unrest of 2022. I examine the effects of framing and experts’ opinions on public perception of these measures, on trust/distrust and approval/disapproval of these measures. My findings from the nationwide survey experiment and three focus group interviews with residents of Astana and Shu (southern Kazakhstan) partially confirm each of the following: populism frame of Toqayev’s anti-corruption policies had a substantial impact on the level of public support for criminal prosecution and asset return initiatives, with less influence observed on constitutional reform efforts. In contrast to anticipated results, exposure to skepticism frames did not reduce public support for the anti-corruption measures. Additionally, I found that the greater social media usage reduced public trust in the successful implementation of Toqayev’s anti-corruption policies while simultaneously enhancing both skeptical interpretations of and support level for said policies. Not surprisingly, expert opinion plays some role in shaping public perception of anti-corruption policies. Two-part survey results demonstrated the increase in support for all anti-corruption policies in the presence of expert opinion. My respondents from focus groups tended to believe that experts’ educational credentials, authoritativeness, adherence to pre-existing beliefs of the respondents, and the content of expert opinion played vital roles in determining whether to trust expert opinion or not. I expected that living in rural areas in the southern region would lead to higher levels of trust and lower levels of skepticism. The results from a two-part online survey confirm this. However, findings from focus group interviews revealed mixed results in relation to this expectation. Participants from Shu doubted Toqayev’s sincerity in combatting elite-level corruption, whereas individuals from smaller southern towns who had moved to Astana exhibited stronger approval and commended President Toqayev for his efforts in combatting grand corruption. Thus, my thesis offers important contributions to the theories of political learning and political communication with insights into how citizens become critical evaluators of authoritarian regimes.