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001. Theses 2819
002. NU Research Publications 11015
003. NU Research Institutes & Centres 586
004. NU Journals & Magazines 279
005. Forums, Conferences & Projects 1333

Recent Submissions

Access status: Open Access ,
Bringing Discipline to the Factor Zoo: Evidence from China
(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2025-12) Dospan, Zhanerke; Rocciolo, Francesco
Determining the true contribution of each factor recently found in the literature poses a challenge due to the multidimensionality of control factors and omitted variable bias. To address these issues, this thesis applies advanced model selection approach in machine learning, namely double-selection LASSO in the context of Chinese A-shares market. Results presented in this paper confirms that, although most of these new factors are redundant relative to existing factors, some factors have significant statistical explanatory power compared to the hundreds of factors proposed in the past. Further, we compared the results of alternative methods to identify whether the newly proposed factors that were significant in the main analysis are robust.
Access status: Open Access ,
How Do Oil Price Fluctuations Influence Exchange Rates In Kazakhstan, And How Do Changes In Exchange Rates Affect Inflation, The Services Sector, And The Goods Sector (Food And Non-Food Products)?
(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2025-12) Orynbassar, Nurlan ; Aigerim Yergabulova
The thesis effectively explores the process of oil price shocks spreading to the Kazakhstani economy, examining the effectiveness of the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime implemented in 2015. The research uses a monthly dataset with a period of 2011 to 2024 to estimate exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), with linear interpolation frequency conversion. This is supplemented with an enhanced Taylor Rule estimation with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to assess the policy reactive mechanism of the central bank. The empirical findings give strong data that the managed float transition was effective in anchoring inflation expectations that cumulative ERPT coefficient decreased substantially between 0.231 in the pre-float regime and 0.098 in the post-float regime. Nonetheless, the overlay analysis shows the highly sectoral heterogeneity. Tradable sectors, namely Non-Food Goods (coefficient: 0.156) and Food Products (coefficient: 0.125), are very much exposed to the impact of the depreciation of the currency, but the Services sector (coefficient: 0.042) is statistically immune to the external shocks. In terms of asymmetric adjustments, Rocket and Feather effect is identified in the analysis as the prices soar up in depreciation but may be sticky in appreciations. Nonetheless, formal Wald tests have a p-value of 0.55 meaning that this asymmetry cannot be statistically significant at standard levels probably because of high historical volatility. Moreover, the Taylor Rule estimates identify statistically significant "Fear of Floating" (𝑝 < 0. 10), which denotes the fact that the National Bank actively increases interest rates in case of depreciation to reduce inflationary pressure. The research indicates that the overall sensitivity of the IT framework to the oil shocks has been reduced, but that due to the structural import dependence, the exchange rate management must still be maintained.
Access status: Open Access ,
Examining How Integrating Non-Cash Payment And BNPL/ Consumer Loans Affected Short-Term Inflation In Kazakhstan(And Its Long-Term Effect)
(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2025-12-08) Kengeskhan, Ilias; Dr. David De Remer
The research is devoted to assessing whether the rapid digitalization of retail payments and the expansion of BNPL consumer lending have led to significant changes in the inflation rates in Kazakhstan. Specifically, it examines the extent to which the integration of non-cash payments and consumer loans has affected the short-term inflation, and whether it has modified the long-term relationship between the price dynamics and fundamental macroeconomic factors. The study has utilized a newly formed monthly dataset for 2016–2025, combining standard macroeconomic indicators (CPI, base rate, exchange rate, Brent crude oil price, M2 money supply, inflation expectations) with detailed payment behavior indicators (non-cash transaction volume, cash withdrawals, number of POS terminals, consumer/BNPL loans). The Phillips–Perron tests demonstrate that most variables are integrated to the order I(1) in the levels and static in the first differences, which motivates the application of VAR models in the changes, as well as the utilization of Johansen's cointegration approach and error correction models (ECMs) in the levels. The empirical strategy has been implemented in three stages. First, we estimated the basic and extended VAR models on monthly basis, analyzing impulse responses and forecast quality (MSE/MAE, Mincer-Zarnowitz regressions, Diebold-Mariano tests). Second, the models were re-estimated on pre- and post-COVID subsamples to understand whether the sharp rise in non-cash payments after 2020 coincided with the change in the transmission mode of inflation shocks. Third, we estimated ECM models that allowed us to separate the long-term united movement of variables from short-term dynamics and compare the results with the VAR estimates. The Holtz orderliness, lag length, and impulse response horizon have been used as checks. The results demonstrate that the main short-term drivers of inflation remain the standard macroeconomic shocks—primarily, money supply growth, inflation expectations, and, to a lesser extent, the base rate. Adding indicators of non-cash payments, POS terminals, and consumer loans had actually no effect on impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks; while the shocks to payment variables themselves induced only small, short-term, and statistically weak effects on Δ(y/y) of the CPI and did not lead to a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy. ECM estimates show that digitalization indicators have correlated with the long-term price levels, while having almost no effect on monthly inflation after accounting for macroeconomic controls. Overall, the findings indicate that the rapid digitalization of payments and the expansion of the BNPL segment in Kazakhstan have not become a significant independent source of short-term inflation, but rather a part of broader structural and technological process of economic adaptation.
Access status: Open Access ,
NU GSE Research in Education, Volume 8, Issue 2. 2025. Table of Contents
(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education, 2025)
Access status: Open Access ,
Kazakhstan's Foreign University Branches: A Policy Analysis of Their Role in addressing Intellectual Migration
(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Education, 8 (2), 2025) Sagyntay, Maira
In this paper, I examine how recent policy can reverse educational migration in Kazakhstan by launching branches of foreign universities in different regions of the country. In order to increase the attractiveness of higher and postgraduate education and better position Kazakhstani higher educational institutions (HEIs) in the international educational space, the implementation of an internationalization strategy was developed, including the creation of favorable conditions for learning (infrastructure, grants, scholarships, etc.), information mechanisms, and simplification of the student visa appli-cation process. By 2029, at least 12 branches and representative offices of prestigious foreign universities in Kazakhstan have been planned. This will enable the transformation of the management system and the intro-duction of international educational standards into the content of education and the learning process, including teacher training (Adilet Zan, 2023).