Factors Shaping Electoral Outcomes in Kazakhstan’s Local Akim Elections

Abstract

One of the key components of democratic societies are competitive elections. President Tokayev initiated a unique power transition in Kazakhstan by enabling elections of the local executive branch by the people. This study examines the competitiveness of local elections of akims (mayors) in Kazakhstan using a combined analysis of quantitative evidence from the electoral commissions and qualitative data gathered from the interviews and focus groups meetings. Quantitative data describes how components, such as proximity to the regional urban centres and winning candidates’ gender, age, incumbency and party affiliation, predict the competition for the seat of akim. Interviews provide more in-depth insights regarding the factors which influenced the competition in respective districts. The regression results and analysis of stakeholders reviews can fill in the gaps in literature and help understand the electoral processes in Kazakhstan deeper and deliver necessary takeaways for underrepresented groups and new candidates