01. PhD Thesis
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Item Embargo THE EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE (EITI) AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT(Graduate School of Public Policy, 2021-04) Dosmaganbetov, AblayThe Ph.D. Thesis considers the relationship between the EITI and sustainable development such as good governance, investment climate, and socio-economic development linkages in resource-rich developing economies. Generally, the EITI primarily aims to improve the transparency and accountability of revenue streams from extractive industries and their efficient use for public benefit. There are mixed findings between the EITI and governance quality that do not directly capture extractive industries' governance. Concerning the EITI and FDI/economic growth nexus, the scope of research is substantially restricted. A few studies conclude that EITI membership has a positive and negative impact on inward FDI and economic welfare, respectively. It is essential to mention that the mixed and bounded research findings do not give a possibility to identify the evident positive or negative influence of the EITI membership on sustainable development of both institutional/governance quality and business/investment climate. Thus, Ph.D. Thesis aims to find alternative measures for good governance that provide a better understanding of the role of the EITI for natural resources governance, FDI inflows, and socio-economic well-being. Apart from these objectives, several EITI country case studies on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan's examples are considered to identify the importance of the EITI for regional settings. This work considers empirical analysis based on different quantitative research methods such as linear regression, state-, state with time-fixed effects panel regressions, dynamic panel regression, iii and interrupted time-series analysis. The diverse range of statistical approaches allows conducting comprehensive empirical analysis and overcoming several endogeneity issues such as unobserved heterogeneity, misspecification, and reverse causality (or problem of simultaneity). The key findings suggest that EITI is considered an effective tool to attract FDI, boost economic growth, improve government efficiency and quality of regulations in EITI-implementing countries. However, the EITI membership has no impact on other sustainability pillars such as corruption, internal investments, poverty alleviation, and legal frameworks. Furthermore, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan cases provided findings that differ from the entire sample of resource-rich developing economies.Item Restricted CARBON STRATEGIES OF KAZAKHSTAN POWER GENERATION COMPANIES UNDER ETS REGULATION(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2021-04-30) Akhmetov, DauletClimate change is a global threat to the sustainable development of human civilization. The Paris Climate Agreement proposed a new international framework for consolidation of the climate mitigation and adaptation efforts of advanced, transitional, and developing economies. To support this global response to climate change, Kazakhstan was the first country in the Asian continent as well as in the post-Soviet region that adopted a national carbon trading system, which its government implemented in 2013. The Kazakhstan coal-based power generating companies have responded to the national carbon policy by different corporate carbon strategies, however, the country has failed to promote the decarbonization of its power industry and improve its carbon-performance. This study provides a comprehensive account of the challenges of decarbonization of the coal-based power industry within the context of a transitional economy such as Kazakhstan. A novel research methodology is developed that combines descriptive models of firms’ climate mitigation responses and the pluralistic research perspectives of the rational approach and Cultural theory. Empirically, the study involves the in-depth case study of carbon strategies of the Kazakhstan coal-based power generating companies under ETS regulation. The focus on the country’s coal-based power generation is explained by the significant contribution of coal combustion to the problem of climate change and about 70% of the share of coal in Kazakhstan's electricity production. The data collection and analysis is based on 20 interviews with representatives of Kazakhstan coal-fueled power generating companies and 10 independent industry experts, as well as official documents and media output...Item Embargo OPEN GOVERNMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA(Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Public Policy, 2021-05) Kurmanov, BakhytzhanThis dissertation asks why authoritarian regimes in Central Asia adopt the Open Government reform. This question is investigated by analyzing the 14 sub-cases from the Central Asian region that bring a new perspective on how authoritarian regimes adopt Western practices and manage citizen activism through an Open Government framework. Sixty-seven in-depth interviews with activists and state officials in Central Asia generate important themes and motivations that explain the adoption of open government reform in the region. The current scholarship focused on the Western countries and largely ignored the Post-Soviet countries. The present study is among the first to provide an in-depth analysis of Open Government and citizen engagement in the post-soviet Central Asian settings by investigating top-down and bottom-up forms of citizen engagement. In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the authorities pursued regime consolidation and external legitimization themes in their drive for open government reform. The National Council of Society Trust cases in Kazakhstan and the Virtual Reception in Uzbekistan showed that despite notable achievements in the introduction of open data and participation platforms, these authoritarian regimes ultimately did not become responsive to growing citizen activism. The Kazakh and Uzbek regimes actively engaged in networked authoritarianism and attempted to use the open government reform to promote government narrative and control non-state discourse. The case of Open Government Partnership in the Kyrgyz Republic revealed that the reform was driven by external legitimization and public services modernization themes. Ultimately, the state bodies failed to endorse the open government reform due to bureaucratic resistance and lack of political will. In Tajikistan, the regime aimed at regime consolidation while attempting to introduce open data and participation platforms. The short-lived open participation experiment with Mometavonem.TJ platform exemplified that the Tajik authorities sought regime consolidation in their Open Government adaptation, and they actively pursued networked authoritarianism while dealing with the growing citizen dissent in social media. The Turkmen Government engaged in the extreme case of networked authoritarianism while dealing with the COVID-19 pandemics. This study contributes to the growing scholarship on Open Government in authoritarian countries showing why and how the regimes adopt the reform to secure their survival in the new information age. This work illuminates that Central Asian regimes pursue their own goals of networked authoritarianism and regime survival while adopting the Open Government. Essential insights and policy recommendations are generated to provide a roadmap for the proper Open Government reform in non-democratic settings. It will help both scholars and policy practitioners to promote transparency and accountability in the authoritarian world.Item Open Access EDUCATION-JOB MISMATCH IN THE LABOR MARKET OF KAZAKHSTAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022) Serikbayeva, BalzhanConsidering the expansion of post-secondary education, its expensiveness and the costs associated with ineffective use of available human capital, the issue of the match between worker education and job is an important research question to study. The current study investigates education-job mismatches among Kazakhstani workers, using the mixed methods research design. Based on the nationally representative Labor Force Survey data for the period 2014-2018, the quantitative part of the research examines the incidence, determinants of education-job mismatches and their effects on individual earnings. For these purposes, we estimate binary logit models and OLS regressions. Ordered probit models are employed to check the robustness of the OLS findings on the earnings effects of mismatches. The qualitative inquiry implemented through online focus groups pursues the goal of complementing the findings of the quantitative study by exploring multiple perspectives of experts on the importance of education-job match, reasons for educational mismatches1, and the role of education-system and labor market-related factors in the matching of education to employment. The empirical analysis shows that human capital and employment characteristics are likely to have much more impact on the probability of being mismatched than individuals’ socio-demographic characteristics. We also find that relative to being well-matched, both vertical and horizontal mismatches have significant negative effects on individual earnings. The earnings penalty is found to be greatest for both vertically and horizontally mismatched (double mismatched) workers. The findings from the focus groups indicate that constrained career choices, labor demand-supply gaps, flaws in the education system, the lack of career guidance, inflated job expectations, unfavourable employment and macroeconomic conditions present additional important factors that could contribute to explaining education-job mismatches. The study has important policy implications.Item Open Access WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT IN CENTRAL ASIA: CONNECTING CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS AND POLICY PERSPECTIVES(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-04) Assubayeva, AliyaWater security has been widely discussed as one of the security risks because of global warming, population growth, intense industrialization, growing water scarcity, and rapid urbanization. Water security was always crucial for Central Asia countries sharing one of the complex transboundary river basins because of the uneven distribution of surface water resources and interconnected water infrastructure. Water security challenges escalated after the dissolution of the USSR because of regional fragmentation causing disputes on water allocation in transboundary rivers of the Aral Sea basin....Item Restricted LAND COMMISSIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN: THE PROBLEM OF CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION IN LAND GOVERNANCE(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-04) Mukhtarova, AkbikeshSince Land Commissions (LCs) with civil society engagement functioning under local municipalities (akimats) is a recent phenomenon in Kazakhstan (2018), except for media reports, little to no attention is paid in academic literature to the work of present institutions. The research analyzes the following research questions why Land Commissions were created and whether they produced the expected results that form a transparent, accountable, and inclusive land granting policy subsystem. The research thesis, in addition, seeks to analyze the question: what conditions facilitated the success or failure (underperformance) of these newly introduced institutions in Kazakhstan? The work applies two theoretical models: "A Subsystem Adjustment Model of Policy Change" (Howlett & Ramesh, 2002) and "A Strategic Interaction Model of Institutional Change" (Pelizzo & Stapenhurst, 2011). The research applies qualitative research methods, such as a revelatory cross-sectional multiple case study, considering the work of Land Commissions in four regions of Kazakhstan: East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, and Pavlodar regions at the district levels. Also, the study uses non-participant observation of Land Commission sessions in selected case regions. Furthermore, the paper applies in-depth semi-structured expert interviews with national interviewees, namely, senior officials (Heads of Land Departments of local municipalities, Directors of regional offices of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, and civil society representatives). Moreover, the author conducted interviews with international experts working for such international organizations as UN-HABITAT, CADASTA International, OXFAM, and other organizations to study the international experience of civil society component inclusion in land governance. The full interview transcripts with international experts are coded and analyzed using the NVIVO software program. Additionally, the paper applies critical discourse analysis of textual (written) texts, spoken texts, and visual materials (e.g., posters, photos) to study how LCs' work is portrayed in official state documents and media. Considering that this topic is understudied, it is anticipated that the analysis of the work of Land Commissions in Kazakhstan might have both academic and practical relevance. Namely, it could be potentially interesting for the broader audience of scholars interested in institutional/policy change studies and the problems of civil society engagement in land governance in the broader Central Asian/Eurasian context.Item Open Access SELF-SELECTION AND GOOD GOVERNANCE(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-04) Ashikbayeva, ZhanarIn this paper we explore how self-selection in the job market affects outcomes in the public sector. We utilize the self-selection model to focus on the choices of individuals between public sector and private sector employment. These choices depend on observable and unobservable characteristics. One of the implications of the self-selection model is that the unobservable characteristics are not randomly distributed in the private and public sectors. These affect outcomes in developing countries, and we specifically focus on the case of anti-corruption policies in Kazakhstan – a country that consistently ranks highly in corruption scores despite the numerous attempts in policy. One of the reasons why anti-corruption policies/strategies fail in the case of Kazakhstan, is not because they are improperly drafted or implemented, but because they fail to take into account the self-selection problem. We find evidence for self-selection into public sector by subjects who are more likely to cheat in a dice task game. Secondly, altruism has no significant correlation with public sector career choices but negative correlation with the corruption. More importantly we find that the correlation between altruism and honest behavior is more likely to be due to framing effects. 2Item Open Access LAND COMMISSIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN: THE PROBLEM OF CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION IN LAND GOVERNANCE(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-04-22) Mukhtarova, AkbikeshSince Land Commissions (LCs) with civil society engagement functioning under local municipalities (akimats) is a recent phenomenon in Kazakhstan (2018), except for media reports, little to no attention is paid in academic literature to the work of present institutions. The research analyzes the following research questions why were Land Commissions created and whether they produced the expected results that form a transparent, accountable, and inclusive land granting policy subsystem. The research thesis, in addition, seeks to analyze the question: what conditions facilitated the success or failure (underperformance) of these newly introduced institutions in Kazakhstan? The work applies two theoretical models: "A Subsystem Adjustment Model of Policy Change" (Howlett & Ramesh, 2002) and "A Strategic Interaction Model of Institutional Change" (Pelizzo & Stapenhurst, 2011). The research applies qualitative research methods, such as a revelatory cross-sectional multiple case study, considering the work of Land Commissions in four regions of Kazakhstan: East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan, Zhambyl, and Pavlodar regions at the district levels. Also, the study uses non-participant observation of Land Commission sessions in selected case regions. Furthermore, the paper applies in-depth semi-structured expert interviews with national interviewees, namely, senior officials (Heads of Land Departments of local municipalities, Directors of regional offices of the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, and civil society representatives). Moreover, the author conducted interviews with international experts working for such international organizations as UN-HABITAT, CADASTA International, OXFAM, and other organizations to study the international experience of civil society component inclusion in land governance. The full interview transcripts with international experts are coded and analyzed using the NVIVO software program. Additionally, the paper applies critical discourse analysis of textual (written) texts, spoken texts, and visual materials (e.g., posters, photos) to study how LCs' work is portrayed in official state documents and media. Considering that this topic is understudied, it is anticipated that the analysis of the work of Land Commissions in Kazakhstan might have both academic and practical relevance. Namely, it could be potentially interesting for the broader audience of scholars interested in institutional/policy change studies and the problems of civil society engagement in land governance in the broader Central Asian/Eurasian context.Item Open Access POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY IN THE EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES: A GAME-THEORETICAL ANALYSIS(Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-04-26) Makatova, AnaraThe local community and social infrastructure development projects implemented by the extractive sector companies in the frame of their corporate social responsibility (CSR), if effective, can be an important source of long-term development for the local communities affected by the mining operations. However, their effectiveness depends on whether the projects are tailored to the needs of the local community, and whether the decision-making for each project is done in a transparent manner and in cooperation with key stakeholders and beneficiaries (including the governments of different levels and communities themselves). In this regard, the dissertation is aimed at answering the following research question: how the decisions on CSR priorities are taken in the context of political economic relations and interactions between corporations, governments, and communities in developing countries. The dissertation does so by developing a game-theoretic model (based on the non-cooperative sequential games design) as an instrument to analyze the decision-making for community and social infrastructure development projects in the frame of CSR of the extractive industries. The model describes possible strategies for four key players (the company, the national government, the regional government, and the local community) and points at the factors (variables) that can determine their decisions. The variables include the costs of cooperation, including sharing the political control over the CSR resources, the value of the social license to operate (SLO), which is an important incentive for companies to fully cooperate with the local communities, and the perceived risk of social conflict (unrest) in case of non-cooperation with the local community. The model is intended to be applied to more than one case of the decision-making for the CSR projects. In the frame of this dissertation research, it was applied to the analysis of three case studies, two in Kazakhstan and one in Mongolia, all of them related to mining companies. The data collection for each case was done using the qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews and the document analysis of policy documents and legislation. The practice of decision-making revealed in each specific case was compared to the “typical” case for the countries, which is the typical practice of the extractive sector companies as described by the experts working in the field and interviewed by the author. In general, the model proved to be useful for the analysis, as it is pointing at the key factors that determine the costs, benefits, and the perceived risks of decentralization of the decision-making and cooperation with the communities in each case. As a result of the analysis, particularly of the Mongolian case, the model was revised to incorporate the strategies related to cooperation/non-cooperation with the local (sub-regional) level of government. The model can be developed further with the operationalization of the key variables in quantitative terms and application to the new cases. The analysis presented in the current dissertation provides grounds for policy recommendations aimed at decreasing the costs of cooperation with the communities for the companies and governments and increasing the value of this cooperation (and the SLO) for the companies. For example, raising awareness of the communities, involving the civil society organizations to work with the communities, and establishing permanent channels of consultations between the company and the community reduces the costs of cooperation with the community. The Mongolian experience of legally establishing the community development agreements as a prerequisite for mining activities of the companies increases the value of cooperation with the communities for the companies, while the requirements for these agreements to be openly discussed and published improve their transparency and overall quality. This is a practice that can be introduced in other countries, including Kazakhstan.Item Open Access DIGITAL POLICY IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF KAZAKHSTAN - IMPLEMENTATION DEFICIT(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2022-05) Beisenbekova, SandugashDigitalization of the agriculture sector is one of Kazakhstan's most intractable policy challenges. Nevertheless, digitalization needs amongst farmers reliant on subsidies have remained high during the policy implementation period 2018-2022. This reflects a persistent but complex 'implementation deficit' as evidenced by the regional managers' failure to meet the digital policy targets set by decision-makers and contradictions between the type of digital solutions installed and policymakers' plans. To illuminate the factors which have shaped the implementation deficit, this dissertation draws on Matland's model on the influence of conflict and ambiguity on policy implementation. The research uses qualitative interpretive research to explore the digital implementation issue via semi-structured interviews, documentary analysis, and participant observation. The dissertation reveals that digital policy is associated with highly ambiguous policy goals, policy implementation mechanisms, and high conflict of goals. This is not surprising because street-level bureaucrats of the hierarchical administration system covertly sabotaged the bottom-up approach of the decision-makers due to a lack of policy capacity. The opposition of values between decision-makers and the street-level bureaucrats has shaped the scale and nature of the digital policy implementation deficit. The key contribution of the research is that it extends Matland's model in the application to the developing countries context. Namely, this dissertation uncovers the incompatibility of the "bottom-up" approach in developing countries' contexts associated with highly hierarchical administration systems and the dominance of informal institutions given low policy capacity. In addition, the dissertation research highlights competing for goals between the "bottom-up approach" of decision-makers and the need for the "quick progress" of street-level bureaucrats. The dissertation's findings question the appropriateness of the "bottom-up approach" in the condition of poor policy capacity of the street-level bureaucrats, lack of an evaluation system, and tunnel vision in the public manager's workplaceItem Open Access ESTIMATING TRADE CREATION, TRADE DIVERSION, AND TRADE BALANCE EFFECTS OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION WITH A PARTIAL AND GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GRAVITY MODEL(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2023) Umbetaliyev, MadiThis study evaluates the impact of the Eurasian Economic Union by estimating trade creation, trade diversion, and trade balance effects with the gravity model in partial and general equilibrium frameworks. In addition to aggregated goods, partial equilibrium trade effects are estimated with trade flows disaggregated into consumer, capital, and intermediate goods. The results suggest that the EEU has a strong positive trade creation effect driven by increased intra-region trade in consumer goods. In a general equilibrium framework, all the EEU members have experienced a positive impact on their exports and GDP. The general equilibrium effects for non-members are mixed. However, they suggest that the most negatively affected non-members are the post-Soviet Central Asian countries. In a trade balance framework, trade creation, trade diversion, and trade balance effects, estimated in a partial equilibrium framework for each EEU member, support the hypothesis that smaller and diversified countries gain more from regional integration than their larger and less diversified trading partners. The trade balances of Armenia, Belarus, and the Kyrgyz Republic have improved in consumer goods and deteriorated in capital goods, implying a positive economic effect. The EEU impact on trade is positive but less significant for resource-rich Kazakhstan and Russia, the largest EEU member. The findings show the consistency between the partial and general equilibrium effects of the EEU and suggest that the trade balance effects could be a useful macroeconomic framework to evaluate the impact of economic integration in the gravity model of trade.Item Embargo PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC COUNCILS IN KAZAKHSTAN: CULTURAL EXPLANATION(Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Public Policy, 2023-04-27) Makulbayeva, GulnurThis dissertation focuses on public councils (PC) of Kazakhstan, which are consultative-advisory bodies established in 2016 with the purpose to offer recommendations to state bodies. The research aims to answer the following research questions: how does social capital impact the effectiveness of regional PCs? How do grid and group environments impact PC effectiveness? What are the hindering and enabling factors of PC effectiveness? To that purpose, it applies two theoretical models: social capital thesis (Putnam, 1993) and grid-group cultural theory (Douglas, 1982). The research applies qualitative research methods, such as an explanatory multiple case study, focusing on four regional PCs in Kazakhstan: North-Kazakhstan, Qaragandy, Qyzylorda, and Atyrau oblasts (regions). To collect data, it employs a non-participant observation in PC meetings and the daily working routines of PCs. Moreover, the study applies in-depth semi-structured interviews (N=60) with PC members (who represent civil service, NGOs, trade unions, media, political parties, voluntary and social organizations) and external civil society representatives in each region. The full interview transcripts with PC members and civil society representatives are coded and analyzed using the NVIVO software program. Additionally, the study surveyed the PC members to measure social capital in four PCs. Furthermore, the research uses administrative documents such as annual reports by the Ministry of Information and Social Development of Kazakhstan on PC performance and socio-economic data retrieved from the National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan. The findings suggest that social trust and cooperation norms positively impact PC effectiveness, however, networking does not. In addition, the group environment also explains why effective PCs outperform their counterparts, whereas the grid environment does not explain the PCs’ effectiveness. Finally, institutional factors such as the role of akimat (local executive body) and maslikhat (local representative body), PC Chairman, and available resources also contribute to PC effectiveness. These findings have both academic and practical relevance and implications. It fills the literature gap in studying the impact of social capital on institutional effectiveness in Central Asia and offers practical recommendations to policy-makers. It will be interesting for scholars who study institutions and political culture, and civil society engagement in local governance in the Central Asian context.Item Restricted ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF JOINING THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ON TRADE PERFORMANCE: A STUDY OF CIS COUNTRIES(Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Public Policy, 2023-05) Tanaguzova, MerekeThe primary objective of this academic research is to evaluate the impact of trade policy on trade performance. Particularly, the study investigates the impact of World Trade Organisation (WTO) on trade performance of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The research applies gravity model and analyses secondary data by incorporating bilateral trade determinants, including natural causes of trade, thus, isolating the impact of trade policy. The thesis examines three critical areas of inquiry. First, this study broadens the scope of global trade investigation by incorporating CIS countries into the research sample. As the most recent members to join the Organization, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan underwent a thorough and prolonged accession process that has yet to be examined within a global context. It is crucial to analyze how the results might vary when these regions' experiences are taken into account within a global perspective. Second, this study examines the consistency of trade dynamics for CIS countries. Considering CIS nations historical regional trade patterns, geographic isolation from global trading partners and significance of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation as one of the main oil exporters, the CIS results might deviate from baseline results. Further, this study investigates the level of trade diversification or trade concentration of CIS countries and provides sectorial analysis of post WTO accession period export share. The research has contributed to the literature by expanding the scope of investigations to encompass the long-term impact of WTO membership on trade performance over 20 years. The study analyse trade patterns from 1990 to 2019 and provides in-depth analysis of the CIS region. The study's findings are particularly relevant to policymakers seeking to improve trade performance of the CIS region. The study, which integrates CIS countries into the survey on the impact of the WTO on world trade, reveals a positive increase in world trade and findings highlight amplified impact of WTO membership and trade agreements. WTO membership has proven to significantly enhance bilateral trade flows, particularly for countries undergoing the WTO accession process. These findings are of particular relevance to CIS countries due to their accession process, pre-existing regional trade agreements and the post-accession comprehensive trade agreement - Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) - comprising five CIS members, with four members in WTO. The research suggests a less favorable impact of WTO membership on trade among CIS nations. Despite the conventional expectation that WTO membership should promote trade, the results paint a different picture. Membership of the WTO has not increased trade within the CIS bloc, nor does it appear to promote trade between CIS countries and other WTO members. While the impact of post-accession trade agreement, such as EAEU, positively influenced trade development of the region.Item Embargo NATIONAL IDENTITY NARRATIVES IN HISTORY: HISTORY TEXTBOOKS AND MEDIA DISCOURSE IN CENTRAL ASIA(Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Public Policy, 2023-12) Khamzina, GuldanaAfter gaining independence in 1991, the question of national identity has become one of the challenges in Central Asia. As newly emerged countries, each state took different directions in conceptualizing the notion of national identity. In this dissertation, I conduct a comparative analysis of discourses and narratives on national identity shaped through national history writings in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. I focus on defining the state's role in building and promoting the idea of national unity under a single shared national identity. As the nature of constructing national identity is fluid and perplexing by nature, I attempt to explore the nature of national identity construct built through national history writing of these states. The research applies qualitative research methods: discourse and narrative analysis, semiotics, and semi-structured interview. For this research, I collected data from three domains. The first is history textbooks in public education. The second domain was the state-supported newspaper articles published from 1991 to December 2021. The third data set came from the interviews conducted with historians and experts in national history writing. The collected data were in four languages in Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek, and Russian. This thesis contributes to understanding how the selected states employed history in creating and building the concepts of national identity. As the research incorporates data in the main languages spoken in the countries, this thesis comprehensively analyzes the discourses of national identity built in the last 30 years. The findings of discourse analysis show the evaluation of national identity concepts in the region throughout these years: from contested and publicly discussed notions to the more state-controlled narratives of national identity. Moreover, the development of grand narratives of national identity in history was heavily supported by the states. The examination of the textbooks and interview findings present the state's efforts in building national history writing culture.Item Open Access WATER PLANNING AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN RIVER CATCHMENTS OF KAZAKHSTAN(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024) Ardak NassirItem Restricted PUBLIC SERVICE MOTIVATION, LOYALTY, AND VOICE OF CIVIL SERVANTS IN KAZAKHSTAN(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024-04) Makazhanova, AsselThis study tests the effects of public service motivation (PSM) and loyalty/organizational commitment on voice of civil servants, using data from a survey of civil servants in Kazakhstan (n=1,122). Having implemented significant economic and public administration reforms in the nearly three decades since independence, Kazakhstan presents a suitable context for studying public service motivation, loyalty, and voice of civil servants. To develop hypotheses, this study applies insights from different theories, including public service motivation (Perry & Wise, 1990), Hirschman's “Exit, voice and loyalty” (1970), and organizational commitment (Meyer & Allen, 1991). The study helps clarify the “Exit, voice, and loyalty” theory by arguing that loyalty or feelings of commitment to an organization and voice are not one-dimensional constructs. Voice can be expressed through direct and representative channels. The study applied a mixed-method design. The empirical results of the structural equation modelling demonstrated that public service motivation has a statistically significant and positive effect on the direct voice, and affective and normative commitment mediates this relation. In contrast, continuance commitment is not associated with nether direct voice, or representative voice and does not mediate this relation. For policymakers, the findings suggest that employees motivated by public service, with high affective and normative commitment, express their direct voice, meaning that when dissatisfied, they try to improve the existing situation. In contrast, employees with continuance commitment do not desire to contribute to the organization, leading to neglectful work behaviour. In addition, qualitative results showed that most respondents suggest that to increase loyalty to civil service it is necessary to raise salaries, reconsider performance-based pay, and provide social support, showing continuance commitment.Item Embargo REGULATORY IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN GEORGIA, KAZAKHSTAN, AND RUSSIA: POLICY LEARNING AND POLICY CAPACITY(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024-04-29) Shaikenova, AnarThis dissertation explores the implementation of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) reforms in Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Russia through the lens of policy learning and policy capacities. The study aims to explain the implementation gap between the de jure stated and de facto implemented RIA reforms in these countries. The empirical analysis focuses on measuring the implementation gap using an embedded mixed-method approach, where the quantitative scorecard technique on the quality and analytical depth of RIA reports is embedded within a qualitative explaining outcome causal process-tracing method based on semi-structured interviews and participatory observation notes. The research reveals that the quality of RIA reports has not improved over time in the study countries. Despite the horizontal and vertical diffusion of RIA reforms, the predominant hetero-hierarchical learning mode resulted in perfunctory RIA implementation in Russia. The advisory nature of oversight body review limits the effective enforcement of RIA quality in Russia. The study attributes moderate success in RIA implementation to the mandatory nature of the oversight body review in Kazakhstan. Georgia, despite international support, demonstrates a failure in epistemic learning mode, leading to low RIA institutionalization. These findings have significant implications for understanding how RIA reforms can be better implemented and improved. The study underscores the need for stronger political commitment and enhanced accountability mechanisms for policymakers and practitioners. The comparative analysis sheds light on the importance of learning modes and institutional contexts in shaping the effectiveness of regulatory reforms. Consequently, this research provides valuable lessons for other countries seeking to enhance their regulatory frameworks and improve their business environments through effective RIA implementation.Item Open Access PARTY SYSTEMS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024-04-29) Bekenova, Asselii. Abstract. This study attempts to answer the question of how demographic changes shape what a country’s party system is, as little research has been done on youth wing and youth quota. In particular, party system changes and party system stability literature never studied loyalty of young voters and perceived activities of youth wing “Zhastar Rukhy” and youth quota and vice versa. Therefore, this study looks at whether and how youth wing and youth quota, party system stability and party system change relate to one another. Empirical evidence has been gathered using mixed-method research to study the issue of youth voting in Kazakhstan. This research involved data collection in 17 regions and 3 cities of Kazakhstan. Youth online surveys were conducted to explore the perceived activities of the youth wing called “Zhastar Rukhy” and youth quota, as well as socio-demographic factors that might impact voting for the Amanat party through satisfaction with the creation of the youth wing and youth quota. The semi-structured interview was used to complement the online survey results by studying the professional views and work experience of Members of Parliament (MPs), deputies of Maslikhats and others on the role of youth wing and youth quota in youth voting, including voting for the Amanat party. The research findings suggest that the youth wing’s mobilization and their ability to pay attention to youth issues in Parliament significantly impact voting for the Amanat party. Additionally, the satisfaction level among young people with the creation of a youth wing and youth quota has a positive effect on their voting for the Amanat party. The results of a semi-structured interview with the political elite indicate that in terms of socio-demographic characteristics (age, ethnicity, language, education) everything matters. Moreover, youth leaders who support party can influence significant portions of peers. If youth are involved in party activities, they will remain with Amanat party. The policy implication is that if the ruling Amanat party wants to remain in power, it must invest more resources in ensuring the success of the youth wing, “Zhastar Rukhy.” Specifically, establishing mentoring of youth wing employees under the guidance of experienced Heads of regional political departments of the Amanat party. This will give Amanat party move away from a centralized form of management to decentralized one, evaluate activities and nominate employees. It will also contribute to creation of youth projects with diverse needs of youth focus – groups (disabled, unemployed, rural, and urban youth) as well as develope political youth leadership in rural and urban areas of youth wing. Keywords: youth wing «Zhastar Rukhy», youth quota, Amanat party, Kazakhstan, party system stability, party system change, party system indexes, fluidity index.Item Embargo PUBLIC TRUST AND COVID-19 VACCINATION IN KAZAKHSTAN(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024-04-30) Kassymova, SaulePublic trust is a crucial factor that contributes to the decision to receive COVID-19 vaccination. To investigate the impact of trust on vaccination decisions in Kazakhstan, this research uses an exploratory approach, analysing trust dynamics through qualitative methods: discourse and content analysis of social media, observations, and descriptive statistics from the survey. The trust in government, state officials, health professionals, close networks, and public groups on social media is analysed through the prism of the Theory of General Trust, Social Capital Theory, and the Integrative Model of Organization Trust. The findings reveal that trust in government and state officials plays an important role in COVID-19 vaccination rates. This research highlights the importance of transparent communication and trust-building strategies. Distrust in government is however prevalent, driven by perceptions of strategic deficiencies, ineffective work, and a lack of transparency. Trust in healthcare professionals and personal networks, like family and friends, also influence COVID-19 vaccination decisions. People often seek validation from personal experiences shared within these networks. Social media platforms, particularly Facebook and Instagram, shape public opinion on COVID-19 vaccination. However, anti-vaccine groups on social media often disseminate information perceived as credible, impacting public perceptions and behaviours. Despite questionable integrity, these groups contribute to distrust in government policies, emphasising the complexity of trust dynamics. To enhance vaccination uptake, targeting vaccination campaigns to address diverse trust dynamics, utilise local community engagement, and effectively counter misinformation on social media, is imperative. The research acknowledges data biases and limitations, such as focusing on specific social media platforms. Continuous research is necessary to understand evolving trust dynamics and inform effective public health responses. By actively engaging communities and adapting policies based on new insights, policymakers can foster trust, enhance vaccination uptake, and improve public health outcomes in Kazakhstan. Such multifaceted approaches are essential for building trust across different networks and promoting vaccination acceptance in the population.Item Restricted BEHAVIORAL INTERVENTIONS TO COMBAT CORRUPTION: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY(Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Public Policy, 2024-04-30) Kuzenbayev, NygmetzhanIn this study, I explore the potential of behavioral interventions as complementary tools to deter corrupt behavior. By conducting an online between-subject experiment with 482 participants recruited from the Prolific.com platform, I test the effectiveness of moral reminder (prompting participants to reflect on their ethical standards), commitment (asking participants to promise that they will report honestly) and moral warning (explicitly requesting honesty and warning about the unethical nature of misreporting) nudges in reducing dishonesty. Participants play a ten-round mind game, guessing a randomly generated number from 1 to 6 in each round, with the opportunity to misreport to increase their earnings. Results indicate that commitment and moral warning nudges significantly reduce cheating, consistent with predictions of the reputational model, which posits that behavioral interventions can increase the perceived risk of detection by making this risk salient. Unlike the mind game, where participants only risk reputational losses if caught cheating (due to the absence of monetary punishments), real-life bureaucrats not only risk their reputation but also face substantial penalties if detected. Therefore, in real world contexts, using behavioral interventions may contribute to reducing corruption by amplifying the perceived risk of getting caught.