TURNOUT DECLINE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUB-NATIONAL VARIATIONS IN VOTER PARTICIPATION IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Voter turnout has been declining globally. This raises concerns for democracies, especially unconsolidated democracies as it speaks to the erosion of democratic institutions within the society. Presidential democracies place great power in the hands of the citizens, in a bid to ensure that the choice of the people is duly represented. However, turnout decline signals that there are democratic challenges faced within the country, which raises an issue as turnout is essential for representative politics. This study seeks to understand the factors that lead to voter turnout decline in presidential elections. By focusing on the role of the electoral commission, poverty and lack of trust in the electoral process, it makes the argument that turnout decline in presidential elections do not arise from simple disinterest of the electorates in politics but rather an interplay of the aforementioned factors. This study identifies three major findings. Firstly, the ineffectiveness of the electoral commission inhibits voter turnout. Given the important role the electoral commission plays in the elections, failure to carry out their essential duties effectively serves as a barrier to voter turnout. Secondly, this study shows that poverty inhibits voter turnout, especially in rural communities, where the citizens have experienced issues with the electoral commission and would rather prioritize their personal gains and interest over civic engagement. Thirdly, the irregularities perceived by the electorates due to the ineffectiveness of the electoral commission, erodes the trust of the citizens in the electoral process, as they have doubts about the credibility and transparency of the elections. These findings emerge from series of interviews with political activists, party members, civil society members and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials. I carry out a comparative analysis of the selected cases utilizing a most similar systems design, where I identified these cases based on shared similarities and variations in the dependent variable at the subnational level. This study develops a theoretical framework that accounts for turnout decline in presidential elections, contributing to a deeper understanding of the challenges and factors that impede voter turnout in presidential elections.