Modeling hydrological ecosystem services and trade-offs under land use land cover change scenarios in the Syrdarya river basin

Abstract

The Syrdarya river basin in Central Asia is facing a strong degradation of ecosystems and water quality deterioration mainly attributed to intensive agriculture. Predicted population growth and land use change call for more comprehensive, integrated management that considers entire coupled social-ecological systems. Within SES (Social-Ecological Systems) framework, the master's thesis is focused on upstream land use change impacts on downstream ecosystem services to reveal the trade-offs. The study performs a biophysical assessment of changes in three hydrological ecosystem services, one provisioning (water supply) and two regulating (water purification and erosion control) by developing spatially explicit models of land use change using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) software. This assessment was achieved by designing alternative land use scenarios and then exploring the spatial patterns of ecosystem services in order to better understand linkages and consequences of land use change. This research presents an analytical framework for integrating direct human benefits and ecosystem services in policy decision-making and illustrates its application.