Techno-economic modellingto strategize energyexportsinthe Central AsianCaspian region

Abstract

This paper studies the concept of energy security from export-oriented countries’ point ofview. It aims to test the effects of long-term energy export strategies in the Central Asian Caspian(CAC) region,by exploring the trade-offs between a “risk” indicator and some key variables of the energy system such as the total cost,the quantities exported, and the corresponding revenues.Risk reduction goals are combined with securing a minimum level of revenues from the hydrocarbon exports goals. It is also attempted to provide a definition and aquantification of a risk indicator on the basis of four components. The analysis makes use of a techno-economic energy system model to quantitatively evaluate the response of the energy sector to energy security risks,and it ssensitivity to different export strategies.