River basin management under spatial inequality and land use dynamics

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Effective management of water resources requires a clear understanding of how socio-economic factors, land suitability, and environmental constraints interact. In Kazakhstan, pronounced disparities in economic structure, ecological capacity, and hydrological access pose major challenges for sustainable resource governance. This study examines the appropriateness of land and water resources in the diverse regions of Kazakhstan, utilizing a spatially explicit analytical framework that combines demographic, economic, and environmental data. The primary goal is to pinpoint regional vulnerabilities and provide evidence-based insights for adaptive land and water management under changing water availability and infrastructure conditions, highlighting the interaction between water resource management, spatial inequality, and land use dynamics. METHODS: The evaluation merged demographic and employment data with land use, hydrological, and economic indicators. A spatial interaction model for land use was employed to simulate land allocation and agricultural productivity under contrasting environmental scenarios. Input datasets included river discharge, groundwater depth, soil fertility, crop yield, market accessibility, and transport network density. Twelve plots, each measuring between 0.5 and 1 hectare, were used for micro-experimental water allocation trials in the Esil and Irtysh River Basins. These trials aimed to calibrate model parameters that pertain to irrigation response and farmer decision-making under water scarcity. FINDINGS: The model highlighted marked regional variations in agricultural potential. Employment in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries was highly spatially concentrated, with a coefficient of variation of 100.4 percent, indicating localized dependence on natural resources. Under simulated water stress, the land suitability index declined by 12.7 percent and hydrological accessibility decreased by 25.9 percent, whereas infrastructure expansion increased these indicators by 11.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The increase in groundwater depth from 12.4 meters to 14.9 meters under water stress highlights the growing risk of extraction and a decrease in irrigation viability. These results demonstrate that environmental constraints and socio-economic inequalities jointly shape the spatial distribution of agricultural activity and the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. CONCLUSION: In Kazakhstan, the combination of water availability and infrastructure connectivity is essential for determining the distribution, productivity, and sustainability of its agricultural sector. The findings provide quantitative evidence that investment in rural transport networks can mitigate some of the negative effects of water scarcity by improving access to markets and irrigation infrastructure. © 2026 The author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third-party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/