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Item Open Access THE BEAR AND THE PIPE DREAM? DIVERSIFYING KAZAKHSTAN’S OIL EXPORTS FROM RUSSIA(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Graduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, 2024) Wong, Gabriel; Arynov, Zhanibek; NG, Kok HoeTraditionally, Kazakhstan transported most of its oil exports to Europe through Russian territory. Russia’s war with Ukraine had a profound impact on Kazakhstan’s oil exports. The conflict jeopardised the stability of the established oil export route, due to the European Union’s (EU’s) sanctions against Russia’s oil sector and Russia’s strategic use of its pipeline networks as a tool to exert pressure on the Kazakh government. Consequently, disruptions in Kazakh oil exports occurred intermittently throughout 2022 and 2023. In response to these challenges, the Kazakh government actively sought alternative oil export routes, with the development of the so-called Middle Corridor emerging as the most viable option. However, the progress of the Middle Corridor faced its own set of obstacles. In this context, what actions could the Kazakh government take to mitigate the adverse consequences of the war on its oil sector? This case study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Kazakh oil exports, followed by an exploration of the alternatives to the main traditional export channel of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Pipeline running through Russia, and the resulting implications for Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. It concludes with a discussion of potential longer-term economic and foreign policy strategies for Kazakhstan.Item Open Access KAZAKHSTAN'S ENERGY TRANSITION(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore; Graduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, 2024) Jean Chia, E Ming; Laljebaev, Murodbek; NG, Kok HoeA country with abundant coal, oil and natural gas resources, Kazakhstan was producing on average 2.3 times more energy than it needed domestically each year over the past two decades. Not surprisingly, more than 95% of the country’s domestic energy needs came from fossil fuels, primarily coal and, increasingly gas in recent years. This heavy reliance on fossil fuels meant that energy-related emissions are high – around 80% of the country’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020, excluding effects of land use change. Amid the public controversy, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that a national referendum would be held to decide the fate of the proposed nuclear power plant. Nuclear energy was only one prong of Kazakhstan’s energy transition strategy, but it underscored some of the challenges the country faced. For a country used to tapping its vast store of hydrocarbons, how could Kazakhstan decarbonise its energy value chain for a more sustainable future?