Theses and Dissertations

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YOUTH AND GODLESSNESS IN SOVIET KAZAKHSTAN, 1921-1933
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2024-05-05) Perlmutter, Sylvan Charles
This thesis examines the changing relationship between the Komsomol and religion, both Islam and Christianity, in early Soviet Kazakhstan. It demonstrates that the marginalization of Kazakh youth in the Komsomol during the New Economic Policy (1921-1928) (NEP) was connected to their limited ability or willingness to participate in campaigns of cultural transformation, but that the reintroduction of mass political violence during collectivization allowed a cohort of Kazakh youth to achieve parity with Russians on the anti-religious front. In conditions of limited resources, poor communications, and low literacy, the legitimization of decentralized violence acted as the great equalizer. While there already exists abundant anglophone literature on the role of Russian youth in overturning the NEP consensus, the role of Kazakh and Central Asian youth is still to be thoroughly investigated. My thesis is an attempt to address this gap in the social history of Kazakhstan.
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THE OCCURRENCE OF LIFE-THREATENING DISEASES AND HEALTH INSURANCE CHOICE
(School of Sciences and Humanities, 2023) Ramankulova, Gulnaz
This thesis studies the impact of life-threatening illnesses on individuals’ health insurance choice. After experiencing health shock, an individual makes both immediate and long-term adjustments to insurance decisions. The study uses the data from The Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) conducted between 2006 and 2018. The main empirical approach used in this thesis is the system GMM model, which is a combination of differenced and level equations. The number of insurance plans, the insurance premium, and total medical expenses are the main variables of interest. This study finds that individuals diagnosed with life-threatening diseases increase the number of private insurance options, experiencing a sharp increase in medical expenses. In the long-term, the medical expenditures stabilize over time and the effect of shock on the number of insurance plans and total premium gradually decreases.
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RELIGIOUS BELIEFS, EMPLOYMENT CHOICES AND GENDER NORMS
(School of Sciences and Humanities, 2023) Talapkerova, Lola
Religious values do not disappear in modern society: they adapt and continue to shape the consciousness of people worldwide. This paper studies how religious beliefs influence people’s economic decisions and their gender attitudes in a religiously diverse South Korean society. A literature review on the subject suggests that, in theory, Buddhism should display a less ”worldly” orientation and ambiguous gender roles. At the same time, Christianity is associated with higher materialism and a more strict gender division of labor. However, the historical context reveals that Confucian patriarchal values heavily influenced both Catholicism and Buddhism in South Korea, while Protestantism reflects a more materialistic and less gender-discriminating worldview. We work with the data from the Korean General Social Survey from 2003 up to 2021. Multinomial probabilistic model and instrumental variable approach were used to examine the correlation between Korea’s three main religious denominations: Protestantism, Catholicism and Buddhism and people’s employment choices, income levels and gender division within families. Our findings align with the assumption that religious people tend to work less and share more strict gender norms. Both male and female practitioners are less likely to work full-time than atheists, and men are more likely to work part-time. Women of all religions have lower probabilities of earning higher than average income levels. Our results also reflect the Confucian influence on South Korean Buddhism and Catholicism, which resulted in a more traditional worldview: women in Buddhist and Catholic families are less likely to work than married Protestants and non-religious women.
Open Access
THE EFFECT OF ANTI-TOBACCO POLICIES IN RUSSIA ON FILTERED CIGARETTES CONSUMPTION
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2022-05) Dyussembayeva, Gulnar
In 2013, the anti-tobacco policy in the Russian Federation was changed substantially as a result of joining the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. This paper analyzes the effect of these anti-tobacco measures on cigarette consumption in the Russian Federation using the RLMS-HSE data. The results suggest that the average number of cigarettes, smoked daily by men, is estimated to decrease by approximately 1 cigarette as a result of the policy changes of 2013. However, the changes were less successful in decreasing the tobacco consumption of women
Open Access
DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN EARLY AND POST-GRADUATION WORK EXPERIENCE: THE EFFECT OF WORKING WHILE STUDYING AT UNIVERSITY ON FUTURE LABOR MARKET PRODUCTIVITY IN RUSSIA
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2022-05) Andrus, Yuliya
This study examines the effect of early work experience on future labor market outcomes in Russia, taking into account the work intensity. The paper aims to identify the wage returns associated with working while studying at university in recent years and analyze the effect of differentiating between early and post graduation work experiences on the returns to other wage determinants. The study relies on the Mincerian specification for the earnings function and uses Heckman’s 2-step selection to account for possible selection bias. The results suggest that having early work experience positively affects post-graduation labor market outcomes. The regression output shows that working full-time while studying at university yields the highest returns compared to the effects of part-time early work experience and working over breaks. Additionally, including early work experience in the standard model for estimating the wage determinants may show that the effects of education and experience may be overstated when the model does not control for having work experience before graduation
Open Access
MATERNITY CAPITAL AND THE MOTHERHOOD WAGE PENALTY: EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2022-05) Kenzhetayev, Rustem
This paper analyzes the implications of the maternity capital policy on the earnings of mothers with one or two children under 18 in Russia. The main goals of this paper are to obtain the most recent estimates of the motherhood wage penalty in Russia and to observe the impact of the maternity capital policy on the magnitude and the direction of the motherhood wage gap. I use the Fixed-Effects model to control for the individual specific heterogeneity and I utilize propensity score matching to control for the self selection. The results suggest a presence of the motherhood wage gap in the order of 3-4% for one child under 18 and 6-10% for two children under 18 on average. Overall, the maternity capital policy decreased the wage differentials between mothers with two children and non-mothers. However, this decrease was not sufficient to eliminate the motherhood wage penalty or turn it into the motherhood wage premium
Open Access
RISKY INVESTMENT DECISIONS OF THE ELDERLY
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2021-06) Kaldarov, Sanzhar
This paper analyzes the risky investment decisions of the elderly in the United States. Utilizing the Health and Retirement Study data for 2002-2008, I first exam ine the effects of different factors on risky asset ownership employing the Heckman’s two-step model. I then investigate the existence of a causal relationship between health and wealth using the instrumental variable method. I discover that the in centives generated by the U.S. pension system are of paramount importance for the risky asset investment behavior of the elderly. Those covered by private pension plans, in particular a defined contribution plan, are found to be more prone to risk taking. The effect of retirement on risky asset ownership varies by wealth with the wealthy elderly investing more in risky assets when they retire. The bequest motive, measured by number of kids, is found to decrease the investment in risky assets at the intensive margin for both singles and couples. Yet the elderly couples having kids are found to be more likely to invest in risky assets at the extensive margin. I additionally find that wealth has a sizeable positive effect on the health of the elderly.
Open Access
EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS AND MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A DSGE MODEL FOR KAZAKHSTAN
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2021-06) Kabzhalyalova, Madina
Shift to floating exchange rate regime is controversial decision to commodity oriented economy of Kazakhstan. Increase in volatility of nominal exchange rate is believed to bring deterioration of main macroeconomic variables and reduction of welfare. This paper thus aims to define optimal monetary policy in estimated small open economy of Kazakhstan. On a foundation of Taylor rule and under two specifications of the model it is found that currently National Bank of Kazakhstan reacts to movements in exchange rate on a limited extent. In addition, optimal policy simulation based on posterior distribution of model parameters and welfare loss minimization function is performed. This analysis shows that exchange rate stabilization within 5% band delivers lowest welfare loss.
Open Access
EFFECT OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE POLICY (NIRP) ON BANK PROFITABILITY: CROSS-COUNTRY ECONOMETRIC STUDY
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2021-06) Kopbayev, Alim
The Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) introduction was dictated with an expansionary motive of the central banks. Unconventional monetary policy is still not fully analyzed, and there are no signs that in the future policy rates might become positive. This essay investigates the impact of NIRP on bank profitability, Return on Assets (ROA). The difference-in-difference estimation method showed a small and insignificant decrease of ROA of banks in those countries where NIRP was conducted. Two effects contribute to this result. First, net interest-related income dropped for the treatment group banks. Secondly, banks offset a reduction of interest-related profits by an increase in non-interest income, which includes commissions and fees.
Open Access
TRADE VERSUS BANK CREDIT
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2021-06) Token, Aizat
This study analyzes the relationship between trade and bank credit, considering them as jointly determined variables. The relative sizes of bank and trade credit to sales are modeled in a two-equation system, allowing them to appear as explanatory variables in each other’s equations. Utilizing the administrative panel data consisting of large firms in Kazakhstan, I carry out my estimations employing the 2SLS method treating exclusion restrictions as instruments. Short-term financial investments are used as the exclusion restriction for the trade credit equation, whereas the size of intangible assets and cash-on-hand are utilized as exclusion restrictions for the bank loans equation. The results suggest a complementary relationship between trade and bank credit. Additional analysis during the 2014-15 economic crisis period points out to a decrease in the effect of the size of the labor cost on trade credit on the onset till the middle of the 2014-15 economic crisis. I also find that the effect of the size of fixed assets on bank loans weakened in 2015-16.
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EDUCATION ACROSS THE RURAL-URBAN SPECTRUM IN NIGER
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2021-06-23) Zhakhina, Aiym
This paper investigates whether and how key education indicators for children of school-going age differ across rural-urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from the World Inequality Database on Education (WIDE) reveals that Niger has some of the most pronounced rural-urban gaps for chosen education indicators. Drawing upon nationally representative data from the National Survey on Household Living Conditions and Agriculture, this paper explores explanations for a systematic difference in education outcomes between rural and urban areas in Niger. The study contributes to the existing literature by taking into account the diversity among urban environments and further distinguishing between towns and cities. This study establishes a correlation between three different measures of education outcomes (enrolment, ability to read, and the highest grade obtained) and location and demonstrates how the rural urban gap can be explained by individual characteristics, household characteristics, and presence of a school in a community. The findings suggest that a considerable part of the gap can be explained by differences in household characteristics. The analysis further reveals that while there is a sizeable difference in education outcomes between towns and cities, it seems to be explained completely by selection
Open Access
The Effect of the Recent Anti-Tobacco Policies on Curbing Smoking in Kazakhstan
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020) Bakbergenova, Meruyert
This paper analyzes the effects of recent tobacco control policies on smoking behavior in Kazakhstan. Exploiting data on cigarette smoking from the Global Adults Tobacco Survey (GATS) collected in 2014 and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) collected in 2011 and 2015, I examine the effectiveness of anti-tobacco policies using a two-part model. In particular, I analyze smoking participation and intensity separately for men and women. Due to differences in sample distributions across surveys, I implement Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to balance the data. My findings suggest that the recent tobacco control policies indeed reduced both smoking participation and intensity for men, but not for women.
Open Access
Pension reforms in Kazakhstan using an OLG model
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-07-28) Abdikarim, Uldana
The aim of this paper was to study the effects of recently introduced pension reform in Kazakhstan on the welfare of the country. The effect of increase in mandatory retirement age for women from 58 to 63 was of primary interest of the paper. In order to achieve this goal, I proposed 4-period OLG model with three main sectors of the economy and a fully-funded pension system.
Open Access
Backward algorithm and abstract graphs in zero-sum games
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-05-01) Iklassov, Zangir
With the beginning of the computer age, solving many problems in game theory has become easier. However, there is a whole class of well-known problems such as chess, checkers, go and so on, the methods of solving which use brute force technique to find solutions of the game. This technique requires analysis of all states of the game and it has the exponential complexity of running the algorithm due to which many games cannot be solved on modern computers. Considered class of games include zero-sum games with perfect information described in discrete space. For such problems, there is no smooth solution that would allow solving problems without going through all the states of the game. This work proposes a new algorithm for finding solutions to such problems. The algorithm uses a new data structure, called abstract graphs and backwards analysis to find solutions. The algorithm still has the exponential complexity of the analysis, however, finding a solution does not require going through all the possible states of the game, which reduces the complexity of analysis. For a clear example, the algorithm was used on a tic-tac-toe game, for which brute force technique requires analysis of around 15k states, while the Backwards algorithm analyzed just 5 states to find all existing solutions. In the future, this study can be continued for a deeper study of the mathematical properties of the algorithm and to use it on games such as chess and go.
Open Access
Is Eurasian Customs Union Trade Creating? Gravity Model Analysis
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-05-01) Smailova, Bayan
The paper presents a thorough analysis of the consequences of economic integration for the countries of the Eurasian Customs Union. The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the economic efficiency of the Union by measuring its trade creation and trade diversion effects. To empirically estimate the effects of ECU the gravity model was applied to the data sample of 51 countries over the period of 2003-2018 years. The analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects of ECU as a whole showed that Union had been efficient in promoting internal trade and increasing the net export of its members to non-union countries, which is certainly beneficial for the economies of nations. Despite the presence of the import trade diversion, the scope of intrabloc trade creation effect is larger, so that the Union can be considered as a net trade creator. Having examined the consequences of the membership in ECU for each country we can state that while there are positive effects for some members, the advantages for Russia outweigh those for other countries.
Open Access
Water sharing in Fergana Valley
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-05-19) Akhmedyarova, Akbobek
This paper proposes a Social planner, Nash-Bargaining and Market-based allocations of water between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as the strategic interaction of those countries under serial monopoly setting. It is the first attempt to analyze water allocation from the part of the Syr-Darya river that flows through Uzbekistan to Tajikistan and back to Uzbekistan. Such geographical feature makes Uzbekistan both downstream and upstream country in relation to Tajikistan, which is uncommon for upstream-downstream problems. This work describes the equilibrium water consumption, prices, and transfers between two countries under Social planner and two decentralised water division mechanisms. Comparing solutions from the decentralised approaches, we can see that both market-based and Nash-Bargaining mechanisms allocate water in a Pareto optimal way. But these desired allocations are achieved through different magnitudes of transfers. Under the market solution, Uzbekistan receives the whole gain from the trade, while Tajikistan gains nothing. In contrast, Nash-Bargaining solution splits benefit from trade according to the bargaining power. Finally, water allocation is no longer Pareto efficient under serial monopoly setting: at least one county would set the price above the socially optimal level
Open Access
The Impact of Remittances on Household Welfare: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-04-01) Turarova, Naziya
n this paper I study the impact of remittances on household welfare in Kyrgyzstan. I deploy asset indices calculated using Principal Component Analysis and asset accumulation over four years (2010-2013) to measure the average effect of remittances on household well-being. The Propensity Score matching method is applied to address the self-selection to receive remittances and the 2010 data on asset holdings is used to add the pre-treatment information on assets. The study finds that remittances have a negative impact on consumer asset holdings and the accumulation of productive assets over four year-period. Keywords: remittances; Propensity Score Matching; Principal Component Analysis.
Open Access
An Assessment of Macroeconomic Performance Indicators in Kazakhstan Via Factor Models
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-05-15) Rashitov, Yelaman
We use factor models to assess accuracy of macroeconomic performance indicators in Kazakhstan over 2011-2018. Specifically, the annual GDP growth rate and unemployment rate are analyzed based on the fundamental factors underlying the economy. The model is a version of dynamic factor models with exact factor structure. We exploit a two-step estimator that provides consistent estimates of the factors when n ! 1 and T ! 1. The findings indicate that there are two fundamental factors responsible for driving real and nominal variables in the economy. These two factors are just vectors whose entries were estimated via principal components and Kalman Filter. Although the growth rate of GDP from public sources indicate that there has not been a recession in the country, we find that the alternative GDP growth rate implied by the fundamental factors points to the recession in 2016. In addition, the finding is supported by the backcasts of unemployment rate which shows us that the unemployment rate started rising after the severe decline in oil prices that negatively affected the Kazakhstani economy. We also find that the official unemployment rate was below the backcasts of unemployment rate by 2 percentage points on average.
Open Access
The Economic Impact of Public Investment and Russian Import Ban on Russian Economy: A CGE Analysis
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-05-02) Kazymov, Ramin
In this study, we estimate the impact of Russian import ban and change in public investment on the economy of Russia, mainly on the sectoral production. We apply the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that we developed for Russian economy. The model is calibrated for 2011 and provides scenario development up to 2030. We develop scenarios that tackle public investment and Russian import ban to examine their effects on the economy of Russia. The results suggest that increase in public investments positively affects production and total sales in all sectors of the economy, but mostly in the capital-intensive ones. The imposition of import ban negatively affects both exports and imports of Russia. Another finding is that GDP growth rises significantly as public investment increases.
Open Access
The Short-Term Wage Growth Rate After Unemployment: The Case of Unemployment in Russia
(Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities, 2020-04-29) Issimbayeva, Gulmira
Issimbayeva, G. (2020). The Short-Term Wage Growth Rate After Unemployment: The Case of Unemployment in Russia (Master’s thesis, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan). Retrieved from https://nur.nu.edu.kz/handle/123456789/4612