05. Graduate School of Business

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Browsing 05. Graduate School of Business by Author "Aimanbetova, Saniya"

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    THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCK ON AN OIL-EXPORTING SMALL ECONOMY: A CASE STUDY OF KAZAKHSTAN
    (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2023) Aimanbetova, Saniya
    This study investigates the economic impact of external oil price shock on an oil exporting small economy in the case of Kazakhstan. The analysis is conducted using the SVAR model. Monthly data is used including the period from 1 January 1999 till 1 May 2023. The study demonstrates that an oil-exporting small country, such as Kazakhstan, is affected by global fluctuations in oil prices. The findings indicate that a rise in oil prices has a negative impact on the trade balance, leading to an immediate increase in the subsequent months. The real effective exchange rate exhibits occasional fluctuations but normally remains within a narrow range. Inflation experiences an initial rise during the first period (the impact period), followed by a subsequent decrease within a span of 5 months. The industrial production index exhibits a more prominent reaction to the oil price shock after a certain period of time, suggesting that fluctuations in oil prices may have a delayed impact on industrial production index.