GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS AND OVERVIEW OF TAILINGS STORAGE FACILITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN: A CASE STUDY OF VARVARA TAILINGS STORAGE FACILITY

Abstract

Tailings Storage Facilities (TSFs) are essential to mining operations but pose ongoing environmental and structural risks. This study investigates the Varvara TSF in northern Kazakhstan using geospatial analysis of Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery from 2019 to 2024. Spectral indices including NDWI, mNDWI, and NDVI were applied to detect changes in the supernatant water pond and wet tailings, both of which are critical indicators of facility stability. The results reveal a consistent expansion of the water pond, with its proximity to the dam infrastructure raising concerns, especially during spring flood events. The spatial extent of water and tailings was highly responsive to fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, highlighting the vulnerability of the facility to climatic variability. The study further critiques the limitations of traditional slurry-based tailings management under such environmental stressors. Despite improvements introduced after the 2016 dam incident, the findings emphasize the need for adaptive strategies, including real-time satellite monitoring, adoption of dewatered tailings technologies, and stronger containment measures. Additionally, the absence of a comprehensive national TSF inventory hampers effective risk governance in Kazakhstan. This research advocates for improved regulatory frameworks and sustained monitoring to ensure safer and more resilient tailings management.