Temperature and precipitation effects on agrarian economy in late imperial China
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Date
2016-06-09
Authors
Pei, Qing
Zhang, David D
Li, Guodong
Forêt, Philippe
Lee, Harry F
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research Letters
Abstract
Climate change has been statistically proven to substantially influence the economy of early modern
Europe, particularly in the long term. However, a detailed analysis of climate change and the economy
of historical China remains lacking, particularly from a large-scale and quantitative perspective. This
study quantitatively analyzes the relationship between climate change and the economy in late
imperial China (AD1600–1840) at the national level. This study also compares the findings on the
relationship between climate change and the economy in late imperial China with those in early
modern Europe. Results of multivariate regression and Granger causality analyses indicate that (1)
climate change induces economic fluctuations in late imperial China, particularly in the long term; (2)
given that the economic center is located in South China during the study period, temperature has a
greater influence on the economy than precipitation; (3) the population of China is statistically proven
to primarily act as consumers in the long term; and (4) given the long-term role of the Chinese
population, the economic vulnerability in late imperial China under climate change is further
increased and is higher than that in early modern Europe, whose population mainly acts as producers
in the long term. In conclusion, the late imperial Chinese society has a high economic vulnerability to
climate change. These findings revisit Malthusian theory and ‘Great Divergence’ theory by including
the perspective of economic vulnerability under climate change during the study period. The role of
the population must be investigated further to address the socioeconomic vulnerabilities under
climate change.
Description
Keywords
climate change, economic vulnerability, population pressure, real GDPper capita, rice price, late imperial China, Research Subject Categories::HUMANITIES and RELIGION::Religion/Theology::History of religion
Citation
Pei Qing, Zhang David D, Li Guodong, Forêt Philippe, Lee Harry F, 2016, IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research Letters; Temperature and precipitation effects on agrarian economy in late imperial China. http://nur.nu.edu.kz/handle/123456789/1908