Dynamic modeling of TENORM exposure risk during drilling and production

Abstract

This study presents a dynamic modeling framework for workforce exposure to Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (TENORM) during oil and gas drilling and production. Using the SMART approach, which integrates the SHIPP (System Hazard Identification, Prediction and Prevention) methodology with rational theory, the authors model radiation exposure across operational stages. The methodology simulates safety barrier performance, employs Monte Carlo and Bayesian updating to predict evolving failure probabilities, and constructs time-dependent risk profiles. A case study involving 2,271 workers demonstrates how risk degrades with barrier failures and enables proactive risk mitigation under real-time system evolution