RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF OPEN PIT SLOPE: CASE STUDY OF BOZSHAKOL MINE

Abstract

The increase in the probability of failures in pit slope design are influenced by the presence of the inherent variability of rock mass properties. This could result in uncertainties during geotechnical design. Although, utilizing conservative approach such as overdesigning to account for the worst-case scenario, can effectively address these issues in practice. Despite this, one of the approach’s shortcomings is that it is quite expensive. In order to tackle these difficulties, it is crucial to devise a probabilistic technique that allows for thorough consideration of these uncertainties associated with geotechnical parameters when designing mine pit. With this in mind, the objective of this study is to execute the reliability analysis of the Bozshakol mine pit slope design. This method would involve utilising advanced numerical models, such as Slide 2 and RS 2 to design selected pit sectors by determining their factor of safety and probability of failure based on the input variables obtained from the case study area. The first-order reliability method was used to analyse the results obtained from the model. Furthermore, the expected outcomes provide a means of addressing these uncertainties and establishing a specific target for the probability of failure in pit slope design. Subsequently, an evaluation was conducted to estimate the reliability indices of geotechnical domains pertaining to the pit sectors. This was accomplished in order to determine the reliability of the pit design and to identify probable risks of unforeseen pit failures that could be addressed in a timely manner.