Systemic antiviral consumption in Kazakhstan

Abstract

This study provides a nationwide analysis of systemic antiviral consumption in Kazakhstan over seven years (2017–2023) using the standard metric of defined daily doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day. Time-series methods were applied to characterize historical trends, assess the impact of COVID-19, and generate projections through 2030. Overall SAC rose across the study period, with an estimated annual growth rate of 10.24%. The largest post-2020 increases were observed for anti-herpes, anti-HBV/HCV, and anti-influenza agents. Forecasts suggest antiviral expenditures will remain stable in hospitals (both in absolute terms and per-million-population rates) but are likely to increase in the community sector on both measures. The findings have implications for health policy and resource allocation aimed at optimizing antiviral use and stewardship.