HOW LOCKDOWN CAUSES A MISSING GENERATION OF START UPS AND JOBS
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Date
2021-08-21
Authors
Karimov, Shyngys
Konings, Jozef
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Economics and Economic Policy
Abstract
This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian frms and apply a
machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on
employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish
between start-ups and incumbent frms with both short and long-term efects. In
the short term, we expect to see signifcant losses of employment coming mainly
from mature incumbent frms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups
formed during the lockdown will have a signifcant and growing efect of slowing
down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.
Description
Keywords
Type of access: Open Access, Start-ups, Employment dynamics, COVID-19, Machine learning
Citation
Karimov, S., & Konings, J. (2021). How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs. International Economics and Economic Policy, 18(3), 457–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6