HOW DOES POLICY CHANGE AFFECT CROSS-BORDER INTEGRATION? A CASE STUDY OF KAZAKH-CHINESE BORDERLANDS

Abstract

This thesis examines the influence of policies on cross-border integration (CBI) in the Kazakh-Chinese borderlands, highlighting China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a key driver. CBI reflects interactions across borders through the removal of barrier effects, yet studies on this region remain scarce compared to European and North American contexts. Drawing on a policy-driven flow approach for integration, this thesis argues that the BRI policies enhance CBI by influencing goods, people and idea flows, thereby shaping economic interaction, governance structure and shared border identities. Merging literature of border and policy studies, this thesis proposed a framework to link policy impacts with CBI processes and outcomes. Through a case-study mixed-method (CS-MM) approach, it incorporates quantitative difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis and qualitative content and comparative analyses. The findings show that 1) despite the BRI policy facilitating flows, economic disparities remain between the borderline and among different border regions; 2) Xinjiang’s regional authority play a central role in CBI due to China’s hierarchical BRI implementation and centre-regional relations; 3) migrations and mistrust during BRI implementation undermine shared identities among local Kazakhs. These findings have important implications for policymakers and practitioners, highlighting the asymmetric development, regional dependencies and enlarged territorial disparities could hinder effective CBI.