THE BEAR AND THE PIPE DREAM? DIVERSIFYING KAZAKHSTAN’S OIL EXPORTS FROM RUSSIA

Abstract

Traditionally, Kazakhstan transported most of its oil exports to Europe through Russian territory. Russia’s war with Ukraine had a profound impact on Kazakhstan’s oil exports. The conflict jeopardised the stability of the established oil export route, due to the European Union’s (EU’s) sanctions against Russia’s oil sector and Russia’s strategic use of its pipeline networks as a tool to exert pressure on the Kazakh government. Consequently, disruptions in Kazakh oil exports occurred intermittently throughout 2022 and 2023. In response to these challenges, the Kazakh government actively sought alternative oil export routes, with the development of the so-called Middle Corridor emerging as the most viable option. However, the progress of the Middle Corridor faced its own set of obstacles. In this context, what actions could the Kazakh government take to mitigate the adverse consequences of the war on its oil sector? This case study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Kazakh oil exports, followed by an exploration of the alternatives to the main traditional export channel of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Pipeline running through Russia, and the resulting implications for Kazakhstan’s foreign policy. It concludes with a discussion of potential longer-term economic and foreign policy strategies for Kazakhstan.