PARTY SYSTEMS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

ii. Abstract. This study attempts to answer the question of how demographic changes shape what a country’s party system is, as little research has been done on youth wing and youth quota. In particular, party system changes and party system stability literature never studied loyalty of young voters and perceived activities of youth wing “Zhastar Rukhy” and youth quota and vice versa. Therefore, this study looks at whether and how youth wing and youth quota, party system stability and party system change relate to one another. Empirical evidence has been gathered using mixed-method research to study the issue of youth voting in Kazakhstan. This research involved data collection in 17 regions and 3 cities of Kazakhstan. Youth online surveys were conducted to explore the perceived activities of the youth wing called “Zhastar Rukhy” and youth quota, as well as socio-demographic factors that might impact voting for the Amanat party through satisfaction with the creation of the youth wing and youth quota. The semi-structured interview was used to complement the online survey results by studying the professional views and work experience of Members of Parliament (MPs), deputies of Maslikhats and others on the role of youth wing and youth quota in youth voting, including voting for the Amanat party. The research findings suggest that the youth wing’s mobilization and their ability to pay attention to youth issues in Parliament significantly impact voting for the Amanat party. Additionally, the satisfaction level among young people with the creation of a youth wing and youth quota has a positive effect on their voting for the Amanat party. The results of a semi-structured interview with the political elite indicate that in terms of socio-demographic characteristics (age, ethnicity, language, education) everything matters. Moreover, youth leaders who support party can influence significant portions of peers. If youth are involved in party activities, they will remain with Amanat party. The policy implication is that if the ruling Amanat party wants to remain in power, it must invest more resources in ensuring the success of the youth wing, “Zhastar Rukhy.” Specifically, establishing mentoring of youth wing employees under the guidance of experienced Heads of regional political departments of the Amanat party. This will give Amanat party move away from a centralized form of management to decentralized one, evaluate activities and nominate employees. It will also contribute to creation of youth projects with diverse needs of youth focus – groups (disabled, unemployed, rural, and urban youth) as well as develope political youth leadership in rural and urban areas of youth wing. Keywords: youth wing «Zhastar Rukhy», youth quota, Amanat party, Kazakhstan, party system stability, party system change, party system indexes, fluidity index.