WATER TARIFFS AND AFFORDABILITY IN URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND WASTEWATER SYSTEMS

Abstract

Water affordability is determined by the water supply and sanitation pricing policy in modern urbanized cities. There is no transparent, internationally recognized system for determining the water affordability for the household concerning income. Moreover, reputable organizations dealing with global water issues mainly collect data on the water source, delivery, household consumption, and the charge over a two-year period, which makes determining water affordability complex and not operational. In this Thesis, we use data from the International Water Association expert community on water source and delivery utilized by over 50 countries in 2010-2018, consumption and charges for over 280 major cities in 2010-2019. Significantly, the population of these countries is about 3.4 billion people, which is comparable to 44 % of the earth’s entire population. In addition, to determine the global availability of water and wastewater in countries and cities, we supplemented the dataset with the data on population, geographic location, income group, according to the World Bank, minimum wage, exchange rate and other required information. The problematic aspect of the available dataset is the multiple missing values. In order to analyze and forecast for the future period, we used machine learning models to fill the missing data, predict future indicators, and develop a model to determine water availability. The thresholds we established correspond to internationally accepted indicators of 150 litres of water per person per day and 3 % of the monthly minimum wage ratio to the monthly water bill. As a result of the successful development and application of the model, we projected the total use of water sources, delivery and consumption for a similar period to the available data. We carried out a detailed prediction by the country for the following two-year period, where we identified nations according to the affordability coefficient. Thus, the extended model could assist determine future shortages or surplus of water sources, predict water delivery and consumption by households, and identify countries with affordable and unaffordable water tariffs.