U.S. Covert Actions: The Explosure Effect and the President`s popularity
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Date
2016
Authors
Sharipov, Aibar
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities
Abstract
Does the revelation of covert actions affect a leader’s popularity? The primary purpose of
this study is to investigate whether such effect exists and, if yes, to determine the extent to which
it has an influence on the U.S. President’s popularity. This thesis consists of preliminary case
classification part, from which I proceed to my qualitative studies of the matter. The case
classification part consists of 16 cases of U.S. covert actions during the Cold War period. I
classify my cases based on whether they have been exposed or not, as well as I look whether their
exposure had an effect on the U.S. President’s popularity. If there was an effect, I further
differentiate them depending on their regime type. This procedure helped me to select my two
in-depth case studies. I have conducted two in-depth case studies of U.S. covert actions in Chile
(1970-73) and Nicaragua (1980s). Throughout the case studies, I have examined the effect of
exposure on popularity in the following dimensions: media coverage, congressional
investigations, presidential approval ratings, and election results. Based on the results of case
studies, it is concluded that the disclosure of covert actions had a less significant effect that lasted
on a temporary basis and did not have a major impact in a longer perspective. Overall, this study
advances our understanding of causal mechanisms that shape the effect of covert actions’
exposure in influencing a U.S. President’s popularity.
Description
Keywords
U.S. President