Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
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Elsevier BV
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In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
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Carter Austin, Zhang Meixin, Tram Khai Hoan, Walters Magdalene K, Jahagirdar Deepa, Brewer Edmond D, Novotney Amanda, Lasher Dylan, Mpolya Emmanuel A, Vongpradith Avina, Ma Jianing, Verma Megan, Frank Tahvi D, He Jiawei, Byrne Sam, Lin Christine, Dominguez Regina-Mae Villanueva, Pease Spencer A, Comfort Haley, May Erin A, Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis, Abbastabar Hedayat, Abdelkader Atef, Abdi Parsa, Abdoun Meriem, Abdul Aziz Jeza Muhamad, Abidi Hassan, Abiodun Olumide, Aboagye Richard Gyan, Abreu Lucas Guimarães, Abtew Yonas Derso, Abu-Gharbieh Eman, Aburuz Salahdein, Abu-Zaid Ahmed, Addo Isaac Yeboah, Adegboye Oyelola A, Adekanmbi Victor, Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun, Adetunji Juliana Bunmi, Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo, Adhikari Kishor, Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah, Adzigbli Leticia Akua, Afrashteh Fatemeh, Afzal Saira, Aghamiri Shahin, Agide Feleke Doyore, Agodi Antonella, Agyemang-Duah Williams, Ahinkorah Bright Opoku, Ahmad Faisal, Ahmad Sajjad, Ahmad Shahzaib, Ahmad Aqeel, Ahmed Ibrar, Ahmed Haroon, Ahmed Syed Anees, Ahmed Safoora, Ahmed Ali, Ahmed Mohammed, Ahmed Ayman, Akalu Gizachew Taddesse, Akinosoglou Karolina, Al Awaidy Salah, Al Hamad Hanadi, Al Mosa Amjad S, Al Zaabi Omar Ali Mohammed, Alalalmeh Samer O, Alam Nazmul, Alam Noore, Alanezi Fahad Mashhour, Alayu Daniel Shewaye, AlBataineh Mohammad T, Alemohammad Seyedeh Yasaman, Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed, Ali Syed Shujait, Ali Mohammed Usman, Ali Abid, Ali Liaqat, Ali Waad, Al-Ibraheem Akram, Almazan Joseph Uy, Altaf Awais, Altwalbeh Diala, Alvis-Guzman Nelson, Al-Zyoud Walid Adnan, Amani Reza, Amera Tewodros Getnet, Ameyaw Edward Kwabena, Amiri Sohrab, Amu Hubert, Amusa Ganiyu Adeniyi, Anil Abhishek, Anjorin Abdul-Azeez Adeyemi, Antonio Carl Abelardo T, Anwar Saleha, Anwer Razique, Anyabolo Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel, Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward, Apostol Geminn Louis Carace, Ardekani Ali, Areda er, Aregawi Brhane Berhe, Aremu Abdulfatai, Armani Keivan, Asemahagn Mulusew A, Ashemo Mubarek Yesse, Ashraf Tahira, Asika Marvellous O, Asmerom Haftu Asmerom, Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi, Aujayeb Avinash, Awad Hamzeh, Awotidebe Adedapo Wasiu, Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina, Ayele Firayad, Azadnajafabad Sina, Aziz Shahkaar, B Darshan B, Babu Giridhara Rathnaiah, Badar Muhammad, Bahramian Saeed, Bako Abdulaziz T, Balcha Wondu Feyisa, Bam Kiran, Banik Biswajit, Bardhan Mainak, Bärnighausen Till Winfried, Barqawi Hiba Jawdat, Basharat Zarrin, Bashiru Hameed Akande, Basiru Afisu, Bastan Mohammad-Mahdi, Basu Saurav, Bathini Prapthi Persis, Batra Kavita, Batra Ravi, Bayleyegn Nebiyou Simegnew, Begum Tahmina, Behnoush Amir Hossein, Beiranvand Maryam, Belete Melaku Ashagrie, Belete Abel Cherkos, Beloukas Apostolos, Beneke Alice A, Beran Azizullah, Berhie Alemshet Yirga, Bermudez Amiel Nazer C, Bernstein Robert S, Beyene Kebede A, Bhardwaj Pankaj, Bhardwaj Nikha, Bhat Ajay Nagesh, Bhat Vivek, Bhatti Gurjit Kaur, Bhatti Jasvinder Singh Singh, Bishaw Keralem Anteneh, Bisht Khushboo D, Bodhare Trupti, Bodunrin Aadam Olalekan, Boltaev Azizbek A, Borhany Hamed, Bouaoud Souad, Brown Colin Stewart, Buonsenso Danilo, Burkart Katrin, Bustanji Yasser, Butt Zahid A, Cao Chao, Cárdenas Rosario, Cenderadewi Muthia, Chadwick Joshua, Chakraborty Chiranjib, Chakraborty Sandip, Chandika Rama Mohan, Chattu Vijay Kumar, Chaurasia Akhilanand, Chen Guangjin, Ching Patrick R, Chopra Hitesh, Choudhari Sonali Gajanan, Chu Dinh-Toi, Chukwu Isaac Sunday, Chung Eric, Cindi Zinhle, Couto Rosa A S, Cruz-Martins Natalia, Cuadra-Hernández Silvia Magali, Dabo Bashir, Dadras Omid, Dagnew Gizachew Worku, Dahiru Tukur, Dai Xiaochen, Darwesh Aso Mohammad, das Neves José, Dash Nihar Ranjan, Dashti Mohsen, De la Hoz Fernando Pio, Debopadhaya Shayom, Degenhardt Louisa, Delgado-Enciso Ivan, Deribe Kebede, Des Jarlais Don C, Desai Hardik Dineshbhai, Deuba Keshab, Dhane Amol S, Dhingra Sameer, Diaz Daniel, Diaz Michael R, Ding Delaney D, Do Thanh Chi, Dohare Sushil, Dongarwar Deepa, dos Santos Wendel Mombaque, Doshi Ojas Prakashbhai, Dsouza Ashel Chelsea, Dsouza Haneil Larson, Dsouza Viola Savy, Duraisamy Senbagam, Dziedzic Arkadiusz Marian, Ebrahimi Alireza, Ed-Dra Abdelaziz, Edinur Hisham Atan, Efendi Ferry, Ekholuenetale Michael, Ekundayo Temitope Cyrus, El Sayed Iman, Elhadi Muhammed, Eltaha Chadi, Eskandarieh Sharareh, Eslami Majid, Eze Ugochukwu Anthony, Fahim Ayesha, Fatehizadeh Ali, Fauk Nelsensius Klau, Fazeli Patrick, Fekadu Ginenus, Ferreira Nuno, Firew Belete Sewasew, Fischer Florian, Folayan Morenike Oluwatoyin, Foroutan Behzad, Fukumoto Takeshi, G Sridevi, Gadanya Muktar A, Gaidhane Abhay Motiramji, Gaipov Abduzhappar, Gandhi Aravind P, Ganiyani Mohammad Arfat, Gebregergis Miglas Welay, Gebrehiwot Mesfin, Gebremeskel Teferi Gebru, Getachew Motuma Erena, Ghadiri Keyghobad, Ghasemzadeh Afsaneh, Ghashghaee Ahmad, Gholami Ehsan, Gholizadeh Nasim, Ghorbani Mahsa, Gil Artyom Urievich, Girmay Alem Abera, Golechha Mahaveer, Golinelli Davide, Goulart Alessandra C, Goyal Anmol, Gudeta Mesay Dechasa, Gupta Sapna, Gupta Bhawna, Habteyohannes Awoke Derbie, Haghmorad Dariush, Haj-Mirzaian Arvin, Halwani Rabih, Handiso Demelash Woldeyohannes, Haq Zaim Anan, Harapan Harapan, Hargono Arief, Hasaballah Ahmed I, Hasnain Md Saquib, Hassan Shoaib, Hassanipour Soheil, Hegazi Omar E, Heidari Mohammad, Hezam Kamal, Hlongwa Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni, Hoan Nguyen Quoc, Hoogar Praveen, Hosseinzadeh Mehdi, Hosseinzadeh Adli Ahmad, Hundie Tsegaye Gebreyes, Hushmandi Kiavash, Huynh Hong-Han, Ibitoye Segun Emmanuel, Ikiroma Adalia, Ikuta Kevin S, Ilesanmi Olayinka Stephen, Ilic Irena M, Iradukunda Arnaud, Isa Mustafa Alhaji, Ismail Nahlah Elkudssiah, Iyamu Ihoghosa Osamuyi, J Vinothini, Jacobsen Kathryn H, Jain Akhil, Jairoun Ammar Abdulrahman, Jakovljevic Mihajlo, Janodia Manthan Dilipkumar, Javadi Mamaghani Amirreza, Jema Alelign Tasew, Jokar Mohammad, Jonas Jost B, Joseph Nitin, Joshua Charity Ehimwenma, Kabir Ali, Kabir Md. Awal, Kabir Zubair, Kadashetti Vidya, Kaliyadan Feroze, Kanmodi Kehinde Kazeem, Kannan S Suthanthira, Karaye Ibraheem M, Karimi Behnagh Arman, Kassel Molly B, Kayode Gbenga A, Khajuria Himanshu, Khalid Nauman, Khalil Anees Ahmed, Khamesipour Faham, Khan Gulfaraz, Khan Ejaz Ahmad, Khan Yusra H, Khan Mohammad Jobair, Khan M Nuruzzaman, Khatab Khaled, Khidri Feriha Fatima, Khorrami Zahra, Khosravi Majid, Khubchandani Jagdish, Kim Min Seo, Kim Jong Yeob, Kim Yun Jin, Kisa Adnan, Kisa Sezer, Komaki Somayeh, Kondlahalli Shivakumar KM Marulasiddaiah, Koul Parvaiz A, Koulmane Laxminarayana Sindhura Lakshmi, Krishan Kewal, Kuate Defo Barthelemy, Kuddus Md Abdul, Kulimbet Mukhtar, Kulkarni Vishnutheertha, Kumar Rakesh, Kumar Vijay, Kumar Nithin, Kumar Manasi, Ladan Muhammad Awwal, Lal Dharmesh Kumar, Le Thao Thi Thu, Le Nhi Huu Hanh, Lee Seung Won, LeGrand Kate E, Lerango Temesgen L, Li Ming-Chieh, Ligade Virendra S, Lim Stephen S, Limenh Liknaw Workie, Liu Xuefeng, Liu Runben, Lodha Rakesh, Loreche Arianna Maever, M. Amin Hawraz Ibrahim, Ma Zheng Feei, Majeed Azeem, Malakan Rad Elaheh, Malhotra Hardeep Singh, Malhotra Kashish, Malik Ahmad Azam, Malik Iram, Mallhi Tauqeer Hussain, Mansournia Mohammad Ali, Marasini Bishnu P, Martinez-Guerra Bernardo Alfonso, Martins-Melo Francisco Rogerlândio Rogerlândio, Martorell Miquel, Marzo Roy Rillera, Mathur Navgeet, McKowen Anna Laura W, Meles Hadush Negash, Melese Endalkachew Belayneh, Memish Ziad Ahmed, Mendoza Walter, Menezes Ritesh G, Meretoja Tuomo J, Mestrovic Tomislav, Meylakhs Peter, Mhlanga Laurette, Michalek Irmina Maria, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá Ana Carolina, Minervini Giuseppe, Minh Le Huu Nhat, Moazen Babak, Mohamed Nouh Saad, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi Sakineh, Mohammadian-Hafshejani Abdollah, Mohammed Hussen, Mohammed Salahuddin, Mohammed Mustapha, Mokdad Ali H, Monasta Lorenzo, Moni Mohammad Ali, Montazeri Fateme, Moradi Maryam, Moradi Yousef, Motappa Rohith, Mougin Vincent, Mubarik Sumaira, Mukoro George Duke, Mulita Francesk, Munjal Kavita, Munkhsaikhan Yanjinlkham, Murlimanju B.V., Musaigwa Fungai, Mustafa Ghulam, Muthupandian Saravanan, Nagarajan Ahamarshan Jayaraman, Naghavi Pirouz, Naik Gurudatta, Nainu Firzan, Najafi Mohammad Sadeq, Nargus Shumaila, Navaratna Samidi Nirasha Kumari, Naveed Muhammad, Nayak Vinod C, Nayak Biswa Prakash, Nduaguba Sabina Onyinye, Negesse Chernet Tafere, Nematollahi Mohammad Hadi, Nguefack-Tsague Georges, Nguyen Dang H, Nguyen Hien Quang, Nguyen Van Thanh, Niazi Robina Khan, Nigatu Yeshambel T, Nikravangolsefid Nasrin, Niranjan Vikram, Nnaji Chukwudi A, Noor Syed Toukir Ahmed, Not applicable Nawsherwan, Noubiap Jean Jacques, Nri-Ezedi Chisom Adaobi, Nugen Fred, Nutor Jerry John, Nzoputam Chimezie Igwegbe, Nzoputam Ogochukwu Janet, Obamiro Kehinde O, Odetokun Ismail A, Oghenetega Onome Bright, Oguntade Ayodipupo Sikiru, Okeke Sylvester Reuben, Okekunle Akinkunmi Paul, Okonji Osaretin Christabel, Olagunju Andrew T, Olakunde Babayemi Oluwaseun, Olalusi Oladotun Victor, Olatubi Matthew Idowu, Olorukooba Abdulhakeem Abayomi, Olufadewa Isaac Iyinoluwa, Omar Bali Ahmed, Onwujekwe Obinna E, Opejin Abdulahi, Ordak Michal, Orish Verner N, Ortiz-Brizuela Edgar, Osuagwu Uchechukwu Levi, Ouyahia Amel, P A Mahesh Padukudru, Padubidri Jagadish Rao, Palladino Claudia, Pandey Ashok, Panos Leonidas D, Paredes Jose L, Parija Pragyan Paramita, Parikh Romil R, Pashaei Ava, Pasovic Maja, Patel Sangram Kishor, Pathan Aslam Ramjan, Patil Shankargouda, Pawar Shrikant, Pepito Veincent Christian Filipino, Peprah Emmanuel K, Peprah Prince, Pereira Marcos, Perna Simone, Petcu Ionela-Roxana, Pham Hoang Tran, Pillay Julian David, Poluru Ramesh, Postma Maarten J, Pourtaheri Naeimeh, Pradhan Jalandhar, Prakash Prem, Prakasham Thejeswar N N, Prates Elton Junio Sady, Pribadi Dimas Ria Angga, Priscilla Tina, Puvvula Jagadeesh, Qattea Ibrahim, Qazi Asma Saleem, Radhakrishnan Raghu Anekal, Rafferty Quinn, Rafique Ibrar, Rahim Fakher, Rahimi-Movaghar Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa, Rahman Mosiur, Rahmani Amir Masoud, Rahmani Shayan, Rahmanian Nazanin, Rahmanian Mohammad, Rahmanian Vahid, Rajaa Sathish, Ramadan Mahmoud Mohammed, Ramadan Hazem, Ramasamy Shakthi Kumaran, Ramesh Pushkal Sinduvadi, Rana Kritika, Ranabhat Chhabi Lal, Rao Mithun, Rao Sowmya J, Rashidi Mohammad-Mahdi, Rathish Devarajan, Rauniyar Santosh Kumar, Rawaf Salman, Redwan Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed, Reiner Jr. Robert C, Rezaeian Mohsen, Rodriguez Jefferson Antonio Buendia, Root Kevin T, Ross Allen Guy, Rotimi Kunle, Roy Nitai, Rwegerera Godfrey M, Sabet Cameron John, Saddik Basema Ahmad, Saeb Mohammad Reza, Saeed Umar, Saeedi Pooya, Safi Sher Zaman Zaman, Sagar Rajesh, Saheb Sharif-Askari Fatemeh, Saheb Sharif-Askari Narjes, Sahebkar Amirhossein, Sahoo Soumya Swaroop, Saif Zahra, Sajid Mirza Rizwan, Salam Nasir, Salami Afeez Abolarinwa, Saleh Mohamed A, Salehi Leili, Samadi Kafil Hossein, Samy Abdallah M, Sanjeev Rama Krishna, Santric-Milicevic Milena M, Saravanan Aswini, Sartorius Benn, Sathyanarayan Anudeep, Satpathy Maheswar, Sawhney Monika, Sedighi Mansour, Semagn Birhan Ewunu, Senapati Sabyasachi, Sethi Yashendra, Seylani Allen, Shah Pritik A, Shahid Samiah, Shaikh Masood Ali, Shamekh Ali, Shamshirgaran Mohammad Ali, Shamsi Anas, Shanawaz Mohd, Shannawaz Mohammed, Sharifan Amin, Sharifi-Rad Javad, Shastry Shamee, Shenoy Rekha Raghuveer, Shetty Premalatha K, Shetty Mahabalesh, Shetty Pavanchand H, Shiferaw Desalegn, Shirkoohi Reza, Shittu Aminu, Shrestha Sunil, Sibhat Migbar Mekonnen, Siddig Emmanuel Edwar, Siedner Mark J, Singh Jasvinder A, Singh Paramdeep, Singh Surjit, Singh Harmanjit, Sinto Robert, Skryabina Anna Aleksandrovna, Smith Amanda E, Sobia Farrukh, Sokhan Anton, Solanki Shipra, Solanki Ranjan, Sorensen Reed J D, Sulaiman Sahabi K, Szarpak Lukasz, T Y Sree Sudha, Tabish Mohammad, Tadakamadla Santosh Kumar, Taheri Abkenar Yasaman, Taiba Jabeen, Talaat Iman M, Tampa Mircea, Tamuzi Jacques Lukenze, Tan Ker-Kan, Tanwar Manoj, Tarkang Elvis Enowbeyang, Taveira Nuno, Teklay Gebrehiwot, Tesfaye Behailu Terefe, Teye-Kwadjo Enoch, Thakur Ramna, Thangaraju Pugazhenthan, Thapa Rajshree, Thapar Rekha, Thienemann Friedrich, Thomas Joe, Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto, Tran Thang Huu, Tran Mai Thi Ngoc, Tsai Alexander C, Tsegay Guesh Mebrahtom, Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya, Udoh Arit, Ullah Irfan, Ullah Atta, Umair Muhammad, Umar Muhammad, Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran, Vahdati Sanaz, Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj, Varthya Shoban Babu, Vasankari Tommi Juhani, Verras Georgios-Ioannis, Villafañe Jorge Hugo, Vo Anh Truc, Vos Theo, Walde Mandaras Tariku, Wamai Richard G, Wang Yanzhong, Waqas Muhammad, Ward Paul, Wassie Gizachew Tadesse, Weintraub Robert G, Weldetinsaa Haftom Legese, Weldu Gebre Adhanom, Westerman Ronny, Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana, Woldekidan Mesfin Agachew, Wong Yen Jun, Worku Nigus Kassie, Wu Zenghong, Wu Xinsheng, Yaghoubi Sajad, Yesera Gesila Endashaw, Yezli Saber, Yi Siyan, Yiğit Arzu, Yin Dehui, Yismaw Yazachew, Yon Dong Keon, Yonemoto Naohiro, Zakham 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