COVID-19 Outbreak in Post-Soviet States: Modeling the Best and Worst Possible Scenarios

Abstract

Using data up to April 18, 2020, from official health sources across ten Post-Soviet countries, the authors applied a modified SEIR deterministic model to forecast COVID-19 progression under two contrasting scenarios: optimal (best-case) and suboptimal (worst-case) governmental response. Their projections indicate that Armenia and Azerbaijan had reached epidemic peaks, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan were approaching theirs in early May under the best-case scenario. Conversely, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were projected to experience significantly worse outcomes under the worst-case model over 30–60 days. The study emphasizes that sustained protective measures are crucial to mitigating epidemic escalation in the region.