Browsing by Author "Bageyi, Maolidi"

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    THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME CHANGES ON INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO, TURKEY, RUSSIA, AND KAZAKHSTAN
    (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2024-12) Bageyi, Maolidi; Yeerken, Reyila
    The research team used a vector autoregression (VAR) model to evaluate the impact of changes in exchange rate regimes on inflation and economic growth in Mexico, Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan during the analysis period. The study includes multiple endogenous variables, including exchange rate (Er), consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and trade balance (TB), as well as exogenous variables such as oil prices (OIL) and the US Federal Reserve interest rate (IFED). The study used impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) to analyze the short-term and long-term responses of inflation and economic growth to exchange rate shocks. The results reveal the impact and role of exchange rate changes on GDP, CPI and trade balance. Based on these data analysis results, the study recommends a gradual transition to a floating exchange rate regime; maintaining adequate reserves and intervening when necessary; strengthening regional and international cooperation to achieve export diversification and improve competitiveness.