02. Master's Thesis

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Browsing 02. Master's Thesis by Author "Abdraman, Azamat"

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    THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS ON THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF KAZAKHSTAN: RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR CASE
    (Nazarbayev University Graduate School of Business, 2024-12-12) Abdraman, Azamat
    This study examines the impact of international sanctions on trade flows in Kazakhstan following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite the sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and NATO on Russia, Kazakhstan maintains strong logistical, cultural, and economic ties with its neighbor. The research focuses on how trade flows have been rerouted through Kazakhstan, particularly in regions bordering Russia, in order to circumvent the sanctions. Using monthly export data from 2017 to 2023, disaggregated at the 6-digit Harmonized System level, the study identifies fluctuations in the trade of sanctioned goods and assesses the economic consequences on neighboring areas and businesses. The findings reveal a significant increase in Kazakhstan's exports of sanctioned goods to Russia after March 2022, with exports rising by 109.5% compared to non-sanctioned products. Regional analysis highlights increased export activity in regions such as Aktobe, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan, where logistical advantages likely play a role in facilitating these trade flows. Conversely, regions like Atyrau, which are heavily reliant on oil exports, experienced a decline in trade activity. Additionally, the study identifies a rise in business activity in areas benefiting from trade rerouting, particularly in Almaty and Aktobe, which saw notable growth in the formation of new business entities.