Suzuki, KoheiHa, HyesongAvellaneda, Claudia N.2021-07-022021-07-022020-04-08DIRECT AND NON-LINEAR INNOVATION EFFECTS OFDEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS0313-6647https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8500.12424https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8500.12424http://nur.nu.edu.kz/handle/123456789/5508Among these pressures, demographic shifts seem to boostinnovation, as the public sector responds to the arrivalof migrants and to community changes in race and eth-nic composition. However, we know little about innova-tion by governments in response to expected populationdecline. In particular, studies have under-examined howanticipated demographic pressures prompt public organiza-tions to innovate. This study undertakes this task by argu-ing that innovation is more visible in municipalities fac-ing greater anticipated demographic decline. However, wealso argue for a non-linear relationship in which too strongand/or too weak expected demographic declines lead to lessvisible innovation (inverted U-shape effect). These proposi-tions were tested with a data set of Japanese municipalitiesand employing a dose–response model. Findings show thatanticipated demographic declines directly boost innovationvisibility. However, too strong and/or too weak unexpecteddemographic declines make innovation less visible.enAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United Statesdose–response modelinnovation responseJapanlocal governmentpop-ulation declinepublic sector innovationType of access: Open AccessArticle