Karimov, ShyngysKonings, Jozef2022-02-082022-02-082021-08-21Karimov, S., & Konings, J. (2021). How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs. International Economics and Economic Policy, 18(3), 457–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6http://nur.nu.edu.kz/handle/123456789/6028This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian frms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent frms with both short and long-term efects. In the short term, we expect to see signifcant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent frms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a signifcant and growing efect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.enAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United StatesType of access: Open AccessStart-upsEmployment dynamicsCOVID-19Machine learningArticle