Abstract:
Among these pressures, demographic shifts seem to boostinnovation, as the public sector responds to the arrivalof migrants and to community changes in race and eth-nic composition. However, we know little about innova-tion by governments in response to expected populationdecline. In particular, studies have under-examined howanticipated demographic pressures prompt public organiza-tions to innovate. This study undertakes this task by argu-ing that innovation is more visible in municipalities fac-ing greater anticipated demographic decline. However, wealso argue for a non-linear relationship in which too strongand/or too weak expected demographic declines lead to lessvisible innovation (inverted U-shape effect). These proposi-tions were tested with a data set of Japanese municipalitiesand employing a dose–response model. Findings show thatanticipated demographic declines directly boost innovationvisibility. However, too strong and/or too weak unexpecteddemographic declines make innovation less visible.