U.S. Covert Actions: The Explosure Effect and the President`s popularity

Abstract

Does the revelation of covert actions affect a leader’s popularity? The primary purpose of this study is to investigate whether such effect exists and, if yes, to determine the extent to which it has an influence on the U.S. President’s popularity. This thesis consists of preliminary case classification part, from which I proceed to my qualitative studies of the matter. The case classification part consists of 16 cases of U.S. covert actions during the Cold War period. I classify my cases based on whether they have been exposed or not, as well as I look whether their exposure had an effect on the U.S. President’s popularity. If there was an effect, I further differentiate them depending on their regime type. This procedure helped me to select my two in-depth case studies. I have conducted two in-depth case studies of U.S. covert actions in Chile (1970-73) and Nicaragua (1980s). Throughout the case studies, I have examined the effect of exposure on popularity in the following dimensions: media coverage, congressional investigations, presidential approval ratings, and election results. Based on the results of case studies, it is concluded that the disclosure of covert actions had a less significant effect that lasted on a temporary basis and did not have a major impact in a longer perspective. Overall, this study advances our understanding of causal mechanisms that shape the effect of covert actions’ exposure in influencing a U.S. President’s popularity.