Do arms have influence? Exploring the effect of transferred weapons` military capabilities on recipients` level of foreign policy cooperation

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impact of transferred weapons’ military capabilities on recipients’ level of foreign policy cooperation. While previous research use financial data to assess the impact of transferred arms, I directly look at the technical characteristics of delivered weapons in order to evaluate their effect on importer states’ behavior. I partially draw on Fearon’s (1998) theory of foreign policy cooperation and extend it. Particularly, in my theory I consider both formal and informal cooperation processes. I argue that recipients take into account the type and sophistication level of transferred weapons while deciding whether to adjust their foreign policies or not. The results of statistical analyses suggest that this proposition holds for some categories of arms while not for the others. Namely, theoretical expectations were supported statistically for aircraft category in general and transport aircraft in particular. By using new measure for the evaluation of weapon shipments, the findings of the project contribute to scholarly literature on arms transfers, influence and foreign policy decision-making.